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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-10-12 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 278 WTPZ21 KNHC 120236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLA MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.2N 109.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.1N 106.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.1N 103.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.5N 99.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-10-11 22:56:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112056 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Entrainment of dry mid-level air along with some modest north-northwesterly mid-level shear has caused Pamela's low-level circulation to become slightly exposed just northwest of the somewhat ragged inner-core convection. Upper-level outflow, however, has improved in all quadrants, with a narrow equatorward outflow channel having developed in the eastern semicircle since the previous advisory. Pamela's intensity was increased to 60 kt at 1800 UTC based on satellite current-intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.7/59 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. However, 60 kt might be a little generous at the 2100 UTC advisory time, given that the low-level center has recently become partially exposed. The motion estimate is northwestward or 320/06 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. This current slow northwestward motion should continue this afternoon and evening as Pamela approaches the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. Later tonight, the cyclone is expected to turn slowly northward, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night as Pamela gets caught up in moderate southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest and west. This developing flow pattern is depicted quite well by all of the global and regional models, and should result in Pamela accelerating northeastward on Wednesday right up until the storm makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico. The new NHC forecast track has been shifted a little to the right again, and is close to the middle of the tightly packed TCVE, GFEX, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE consensus track-model envelope. The global and regional models are in very good agreement that the current slight southeastward tilt to the vortex column should abate within the next 6 hours or so, along with the dry mid-level air mixing out. As a result, deep convection should re-fire near the center later tonight, resulting in the development of an eyewall, which will create the necessary chimney effect to allow Pamela to resume its earlier rapid intensification trend. In fact, all of the models now show strengthening right up until the cyclone makes landfall on Wednesday due to the upper-level outflow pattern expanding, along with the development of poleward and equatorward outflow channels by late Tuesday. The new official intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, and lies near the upper-end of the intensity guidance. Pamela is still expected to become a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After landfall occurs, rapid weakening is forecast due to the cyclone moving over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. However, the higher elevations of north-central Mexico could still receive tropical-storm force winds after Pamela moves well inland. Furthermore, deep moisture associated with Pamela will gradually overspread much of north-central and northeastern Mexico late on Wednesday, and then move into southern and central Texas on Thursday, enhancing the rainfall potential in those areas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela on Tuesday during the late morning and early afternoon to provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are possible within the Hurricane Watch area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of Pamela and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 17.2N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 18.3N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 20.0N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 22.0N 107.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 24.3N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 14/0600Z 27.4N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 14/1800Z 31.2N 97.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-10-11 22:53:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 647 WTPZ21 KNHC 112053 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO SAN BLAS * ISLA MARIAS * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.5W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.5W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.3N 109.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.0N 108.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 107.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.3N 105.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 102.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.2N 97.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 108.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-10-11 17:13:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111513 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Corrected to update Key Messages Pamela's convective pattern has undergone a pronounced bursting phase since the previous advisory, including significant lightning activity in the inner-core region near the center, with formation of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) now evident. However, the lightning ceased about 5 h ago and the CDO has recently become a little disheveled looking along with pronounced warming of the cloud tops compared to the much colder cloud tops colder than -85C just a few hours ago. The advisory intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on an average of satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt from SAB, and T3.5/55 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Pamela has slowed down significantly since the previous advisory, and the motion estimate is now northwestward or 320/07 kt. A northwestward motion should continue today as Pamela approaches an east-to-west-oriented subtropical ridge axis situated along 19-20N latitude. By late tonight, the storm is forecast to turn slowly northward, followed by a motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed by Tuesday night. As Pamela gets caught up in the moderate southwesterly flow between the subtropical ridge to its south and an approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest, the cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday until Pamela makes landfall along the southwest coast of Mexico. The new NHC forecast track is a tad to the right of and slightly faster than the previous advisory track, and close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track model envelope. The recent disruption in Pamela's convective pattern has likely been due the cyclone having entrained a slug of dry air. However, this convective hiatus will likely be short-lived due to the robust inner-core wind field noted in earlier ASCAT wind data, which should allow for Pamela to mix out any dry air. Moderate northerly shear is forecast to subside over the next 24 hours, giving way to the development of an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, along with an impressive outflow pattern developing in the northern semicircle. The combination of a tight inner-core wind field, low vertical shear, very warm sea-surface temperatures, and a moist mid-level environment should allow for Pamela to rapid intensify for the next 36 hours -- possibly even right up until Pamela reaches the coast of Mexico. The latest official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is an average of the consensus intensity models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA, an remains at the high end of the intensity guidance. Pamela is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After inland occurs, rapid weakening is expected as the storm moves over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. However, higher elevations could still receive tropical-storm force winds after Pamela moves well inland. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela Tuesday late morning and early afternoon. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are possible within the Hurricane Watch area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of Pamela and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.8N 108.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.8N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 19.3N 109.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 21.1N 108.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 23.3N 107.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 25.7N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/1200Z 29.1N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-10-11 17:01:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111501 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Pamela's convective pattern has undergone a pronounced bursting phase since the previous advisory, including significant lightning activity in the inner-core region near the center, with formation of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) now evident. However, the lightning ceased about 5 h ago and the CDO has recently become a little disheveled looking along with pronounced warming of the cloud tops compared to the much colder cloud tops colder than -85C just a few hours ago. The advisory intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on an average of satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt from SAB, and T3.5/55 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Pamela has slowed down significantly since the previous advisory, and the motion estimate is now northwestward or 320/07 kt. A northwestward motion should continue today as Pamela approaches an east-to-west-oriented subtropical ridge axis situated along 19-20N latitude. By late tonight, the storm is forecast to turn slowly northward, followed by a motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed by Tuesday night. As Pamela gets caught up in the moderate southwesterly flow between the subtropical ridge to its south and an approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest, the cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday until Pamela makes landfall along the southwest coast of Mexico. The new NHC forecast track is a tad to the right of and slightly faster than the previous advisory track, and close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track model envelope. The recent disruption in Pamela's convective pattern has likely been due the cyclone having entrained a slug of dry air. However, this convective hiatus will likely be short-lived due to the robust inner-core wind field noted in earlier ASCAT wind data, which should allow for Pamela to mix out any dry air. Moderate northerly shear is forecast to subside over the next 24 hours, giving way to the development of an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, along with an impressive outflow pattern developing in the northern semicircle. The combination of a tight inner-core wind field, low vertical shear, very warm sea-surface temperatures, and a moist mid-level environment should allow for Pamela to rapid intensify for the next 36 hours -- possibly even right up until Pamela reaches the coast of Mexico. The latest official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is an average of the consensus intensity models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA, an remains at the high end of the intensity guidance. Pamela is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After inland occurs, rapid weakening is expected as the storm moves over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. However, higher elevations could still receive tropical-storm force winds after Pamela moves well inland. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela Tuesday late morning and early afternoon. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and it could bring life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds to a portion of that area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Hurricane watches will likely be required later this morning. 2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and could bring strong winds to the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be required for portions of this area later today. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.8N 108.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.8N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 19.3N 109.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 21.1N 108.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 23.3N 107.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 25.7N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/1200Z 29.1N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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