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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-10-10 10:48:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 125 WTPZ21 KNHC 100848 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.9W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.9W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.1N 105.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.6N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.2N 106.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 102.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Forecast Discussion Number 51

2021-10-05 10:38:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Oct 05 2021 780 WTNT43 KNHC 050838 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 900 AM GMT Tue Oct 05 2021 Sam's low-level circulation center has become exposed on the south side of an east-to-west oriented cloud band containing cloud tops that have warmed to around -50 deg C. The cyclone's overall cloud pattern in satellite imagery resembles that of an occluded extratropical low pressure system, and surface analyses from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center indicate that Sam's inner-core is now interacting with a frontal system. Furthermore, the system is located over sea-surface temperatures of around 14 deg C. Although the system likely still has a warm-core thermal structure in the mid- and upper-levels of the troposphere based on earlier 04/2321Z AMSU-A/-B data, the low-level circulation now is comprised of an extensive field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds. Based on these data, Sam has made the transition to an extratropical cyclone over the far north Atlantic. The initial wind speed has been lowered to 70 kt based on a standard decay rate. The initial motion estimate is northward or 010/20 kt. Extratropical-Sam has been moving north-northeastward at 35 kt since the previous advisory, but the latest global and regional models are all in very good agreement that the system will slow down significantly during the next 6-12 hours as it interacts with an approaching baroclinic mid- to upper-level trough/low. By late Tuesday, the post-tropical cyclone should turn east-northeastward, and then make a counter-clockwise loop southwest of Iceland on Wednesday. By Thursday, the large cyclone is expected to move east-northeastward or eastward and pass very near the southern coast of Iceland on days 4 and 5 as a weakening extratropical low pressure system. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models. Extratropical-Sam is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds for the next 12-18 hours, followed by a slow weakening trend as the cyclone loses its baroclinic forcing. However, Post-Tropical-Sam is still expected to pass close to Iceland in the 96-120-h period as an expansive low pressure system producing gale-force winds over a very large area. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Sam. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and southeastern Newfoundland through midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 51.0N 39.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 05/1800Z 52.1N 38.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 06/0600Z 52.8N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/1800Z 54.3N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/0600Z 57.9N 24.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/1800Z 61.8N 23.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/0600Z 62.7N 27.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 61.7N 26.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 63.6N 15.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Forecast Advisory Number 51

2021-10-05 10:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 05 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050832 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC TUE OCT 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT.......240NE 270SE 400SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 420SE 780SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 39.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 52.1N 38.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 480SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 52.8N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 150SE 150SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 450SE 480SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.3N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 270SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 57.9N 24.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 230SE 190SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 61.8N 23.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...400NE 280SE 270SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 62.7N 27.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...330NE 280SE 390SW 420NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 61.7N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 63.6N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.0N 39.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SAM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 48

2021-10-04 16:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 041443 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 Sam remains a formidable high-latitude hurricane this morning. An earlier 1102 UTC GMI microwave overpass continued to depict concentric eyewalls with a fairly well-defined inner-eye that was open over the southwestern quadrant. Although there has been a generally warming of the cloud tops in infrared satellite imagery, the eye remains apparent and the system is still fairly symmetric. A blend of the subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from both SAB and TAFB yield an intensity of 85 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. Now that Sam has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream it will be moving over progressively colder waters and into much higher vertical wind shear conditions by this evening, which should cause some gradual weakening. However, the interaction of the cyclone with a strong upper-level trough is likely to lead to the rapid transition of Sam into a powerful extratropical cyclone later this evening. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds until late Tuesday. Gradual weakening should occur after that time as the baroclinic forcing decreases, and the system is forecast to spin down slowly over the north Atlantic later this week. Sam continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving at 045/28 kt. A faster northeastward motion is forecast through tonight as Sam moves within the strong southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to slow down on Tuesday as it interacts with the trough/cut-off low. After that time, the system is forecast to turn east-northeastward, and then rotate cyclonically around the eastern flank of yet another cut-off low later in the week. The dynamical model guidance remains in generally good agreement on the overall track forecast scenario, albeit for some forward speed variations. The latest official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus in deference to the aforementioned along-track differences. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and southeastern Newfoundland for the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 42.6N 45.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 46.5N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/0000Z 50.3N 38.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/1200Z 51.4N 33.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/0000Z 54.3N 27.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1200Z 58.3N 24.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z 61.0N 29.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 60.0N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

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Remnants of Victor Forecast Advisory Number 21

2021-10-04 16:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 041442 TCMAT5 REMNANTS OF VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 45.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON VICTOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF VICTOR CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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