je.st

Home › forecast

Tag: forecast

Remnants of Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-10-14 04:38:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140238 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC THU OCT 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 101.5W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 101.5W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 101.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAMELA. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number advisory forecast pamela

Tropical Depression Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 15

2021-10-13 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 132034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 103.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 103.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.6N 100.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-10-13 16:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131452 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Pamela is estimated to have made landfall around 1200 UTC close to Estacion Dimas in the Mexican state of Sinaloa as a 65-kt hurricane. To the southeast of the landfall location, observations from the Mazatlan Airport indicated wind gusts to 40 kt had occurred. There was also a storm chaser located at Marmor de Salcido, Mexico, who measured a minimum pressure of 990.8 mb with southeasterly winds to 20 kt at 1208 UTC. Thus, based on these data, the estimated landfall location and an estimated minimum central pressure of 987 mb appears reasonable. Vigorous deep convection is still occuring around Pamela's estimated center as it moves farther inland. However, since the center has been onshore for a few hours now, the wind field is likely starting to spin down and maximum sustained winds are estimated to have decreased to 55 kt. The tropical cyclone has been accelerating to the northeast this morning, with the latest estimated motion at 045/20 kt. Further acceleration to the northeast is expected as the system remains embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a long-wave trough over the western United States and a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement on this solution with the storm losing its identity after the 12-h forecast period and the latest track forecast remains close to the model consensus solutions. Pamela's circulation is not forecast to survive the passage over the high, rugged terrain of Central Mexico, but its remnants are expected to contain a large slug of deep-layer moisture that will be advected northeastward into the south-central United States. Additional heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are anticipated later today and on Thursday for these areas. Key Messages: 1. Although Pamela is moving inland into west-central Mexico this morning, a Tropical Storm warning remains in effect from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa where tropical storm conditions are still expected for the next several hours. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela will continue across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durgano, and northern Nayarit through today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma today into Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 24.4N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-10-13 16:46:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 131446 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA. ALL OTHER TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA NOW. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 210SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 106.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical