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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-10-13 10:48:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130848 TCDEP1 Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Although Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have not changed, recent imagery indicates that the center is more involved with the deep convection than it was earlier, suggesting that at least some strengthening has taken place. Moreover, an excellent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass from around 0500 UTC showed a couple of 53 to 54 kt wind vectors, which is likely an undersampling of the peak intensity. On this basis, the estimated intensity of Pamela is increased slightly to 65 kt, so the system is once again a hurricane. Since the tropical cyclone is close to landfall and the upper-level winds are not conducive for much more strengthening, little change in intensity is likely until the center crosses the coast. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, and the official forecast may be a little on the high side given the mountainous terrain that the system will traverse. Center fixes from geostationary imagery and the scatterometer indicate that Pamela is now moving faster toward the northeast, or at about 045/12 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours while the cyclone is embedded in the deep-layer southwesterly flow between a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and a broad trough over the west-central United States. The official forecast track has been shifted a little to the southeast of the previous one, but still moves Pamela across the coast of Mexico withing the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Later today and tonight, the rapidly weakening cyclone should move over central and northern Mexico. By 36 hours, the global models show the system losing its identity. The official forecast track is close to the simple and corrected consensus model solutions. Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States later today or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to make landfall on the west-central coast of Mexico this morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to continue to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma later today or Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 22.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 24.5N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/0600Z 27.4N 101.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-10-13 10:45:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 130845 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLAS MARIAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 107.6W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 107.6W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.5N 105.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 101.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 107.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-10-13 04:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Westerly shear has continued to prevent Pamela from restrengthening this evening. Although there was a significant burst of deep convection since the previous advisory, the center remains on the northwestern edge of the convective cloud mass and more recently the cloud tops associated with that burst has begun to warm. A blend of subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from SAB and TAFB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate stills support an initial intensity of 60 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela overnight, which should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity. Recent center fixes show that Pamela has made its much anticipated north-northeastward turn, and it is now moving 020/10 kt. The tropical storm should accelerate northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours as it gets caught in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico, and an approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest. This motion should bring the center of Pamela to the coast of west-central mainland Mexico around 1200 UTC Wednesday morning. After that time, Pamela or its remnants should continue moving quickly northeastward across central and northern Mexico through Wednesday night. Although a 36-h post-tropical cyclone point is shown over southern Texas, the low-level center is likely to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Pamela will be moving over very warm SSTs of around 31C overnight, and that combined with a slightly more conducive upper-level wind pattern should allow Pamela to restrengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening will occur as Pamela moves over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. The latest NHC intensity forecast is again near the higher side of the guidance envelope, but it shows a slightly lower peak intensity before landfall than the previous official forecast. Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to restrengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango along with southern portions of Baja California Sur tonight and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 21.9N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 23.8N 106.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 14/0000Z 26.6N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1200Z 29.7N 99.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-10-12 23:09:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 390 WTPZ41 KNHC 122053 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Entrainment of very dry mid-level air from the west and northwest appears to have eroded Pamela's deep convection in the northwestern semicircle, leaving the low-level center partially exposed again similar to this time yesterday. Although there could still be some upper-level wind shear affecting the cyclone, dropsonde wind data from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the vortex column from the surface to at least the 700-mb level was vertically aligned with no tilt evident. The highest aircraft flight-level and SFMR winds only support an intensity of about 55 kt. However, the aircraft measured a central pressure of 989 mb on its second and outbound pass through the center, which was a decrease of 2 mb from the first pass, and would support an intensity close to hurricane strength. Based on the relatively low central pressure, and the possibility that stronger winds might exist east of the center in an area that wasn't sampled by the aircraft, Pamela's intensity has only been lowered to 60 kt for this advisory. Data from the aircraft indicated that the 34-kt wind radii had expanded in all quadrants despite Pamela's peak winds having weakened. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela later tonight around 0530 UTC. The initial motion estimate is northward, or 360/08 kt. Now that Pamela is on or just north of the axis of a deep-layer ridge, a sharp turn toward the north-northeast should occur very soon, followed by a northeastward motion tonight as the cyclone becomes embedded within southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. Pamela should then accelerate toward the west-central coast of Mexico tonight through Wednesday due to the deep-layer steering flow on the southeast side of the aforementioned trough. Landfall is still expected to occur along the west-central coast of Mexico a little before 1200 UTC Wednesday morning. After the hurricane moves inland, Pamela, or its remnants will continue to accelerate northeastward across central and northern Mexico, and move into Texas by Thursday night. The new NHC track model guidance remains tightly packed around the previous advisory track, so no significant changes were required. It might not seem like it based on the downward satellite trends today, but the negative effects from modest vertical shear and dry air that have been affecting the cyclone will gradually subside once Pamela makes the expected northeastward turn later this evening. During that same time, the deep-layer shear vector is forecast to slowly back around to a southwesterly direction and become aligned with the hurricane's forward motion, which will help to reduce some of the effects of the shear. Surrounding dry mid-level air could still be a hindering factor, but this negative parameter is expected to be offset by Pamela moving over very warm sea-surface temperatures of almost 31 deg C overnight. The higher ocean heat content should increase the available instability during the normal convective maximum period tonight, enabling the cyclone to restrengthen to hurricane status, and continue to strengthen right up until landfall occurs. Although it now appears unlikely that the cyclone will become a major hurricane, Pamela could still become a category 2 hurricane prior to landfall. After landfall occurs, rapid decay due to interaction with the mountainous terrain of Mexico is expected, with the cyclone ultimately dissipating over northern Mexico in a couple of days. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near or above the upper end of the intensity guidance. Although the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to restrengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane this afternoon and tonight, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area, primarily in strong gusts. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 21.0N 109.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 22.7N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 25.4N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/0600Z 28.8N 101.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 32.0N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-10-12 22:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 122045 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PRODUCING CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 109.3W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 109.3W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.7N 107.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.4N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.8N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.0N 97.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 109.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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