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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-10-12 16:42:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121442 TCDEP1 Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Similar to this time yesterday, Pamela is undergoing an episodic convective bursting phase. The convection is likely being modulated by west-northwesterly mid-level shear of at least 15 kt that is undercutting the outflow layer, plus intrusions of dry mid-level air with humidity values near 55 percent, as analyzed in SHIPS diagnostics. The intensity at 1200 UTC was increased to 70 kt based on an average of subjective Dvorak satellite classifications of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB, and an objective estimate of 70 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field. Pamela is moving northward or 010/11 kt. The hurricane is now on or just north of the east-west-oriented axis of a deep-layer subtropical ridge situated over central Mexico. The northward motion should continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the northeast by this afternoon or early evening as Pamela becomes embedded within southwesterly environmental flow ahead of a broad mid-/upper-level trough. That large-scale feature will cause the hurricane to accelerate tonight through Wednesday, with Pamela now expected to reach the coast of west-central Mexico just before 1200 UTC Wednesday morning. After the hurricane moves inland early Wednesday, Pamela, or its remnants should continue to accelerate northeastward across central and northern Mexico and into Texas by the end of the week. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory forecast track, so no significant changes were required. The latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models output show that west-northwesterly 850-200-mb shear of at least 15 kt is allegedly affecting Pamela. However, shear analyses from UW-CIMSS indicate that the shear is less than 10 kt from the west. Once Pamela makes the northeastward turn, the deep-layer shear vector is forecast to back around to a southwesterly direction and become aligned with the hurricane's forward motion, which should help to lessen the negative effects of the vertical wind shear. Although the mid-level moisture is expected to be somewhat austere at only 50-55 percent, Pamela will be moving over sea-surface temperatures (SST) near 31 deg C, which is almost 1 deg C warmer than current SST values beneath the hurricane. This expected increase in ocean heat content, along with decreasing shear, should enhance the convective bursting phase that Pamela will likely undergo later tonight during the nocturnal convective maximum period, enabling the cyclone to strengthen to near major hurricane status before landfall occurs. The new NHC intensity forecast continues to indicate steady to rapid strengthening, and remains above all of the available intensity guidance. After landfall, Pamela is expected to rapidly decay due to interaction with the mountainous terrain of Mexico, with the cyclone ultimately dissipating over northern Mexico in 2 to 3 days. Another aircraft reconnaissance mission to investigate Pamela is scheduled for tonight at 0530 UTC. Although the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane later today and tonight, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.4N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 21.8N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 24.1N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/0000Z 27.1N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1200Z 30.7N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-10-12 16:42:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 121442 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS IN THIS CASE...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 18 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 18 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 108.9W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 108.9W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.1N 106.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.1N 103.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 99.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-10-12 10:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 003 WTPZ41 KNHC 120834 TCDEP1 Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 After being relatively steady in strength for the past 12 hours or so, satellite images indicate that Pamela has resumed intensifying. A large area of deep convection has developed during the past several hours, and the center is estimated to be located near the middle of the convective mass. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have both increased to 4.0/65 kt, and therefore, Pamela has now been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm later this morning and early afternoon to provide a better assessment of Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field. Pamela has made the expected turn to the north, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 360/10 kt. The system is now on the western periphery of the ridge, which should cause it to continue moving northward today. However, by tonight, Pamela is forecast to become embedded in the flow on the south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough, and that feature should cause the hurricane to move faster to the northeast toward the coast of west-central Mexico. After the storm moves inland early Wednesday, Pamela, or its remnants should accelerate northeastward across central and northern Mexico by the end of the week. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Even though Pamela has not strengthened as quickly as thought up to this point, the overall intensity forecast philosophy has not changed much. The storm is expected to be in generally favorable conditions to gain strength until it reaches the coast of Mexico in 24 to 36 hours. Therefore, the NHC forecast continues to predict steady to rapid strengthening, and Pamela is likely to be near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall. After landfall, Pamela is expected to rapidly decay due to the rugged terrain of Mexico, and it should ultimately dissipate over northern Mexico in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance. Although the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane later today an tonight, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur later today and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 19.2N 108.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 22.4N 107.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 25.1N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/0600Z 28.4N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 9

2021-10-12 10:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120833 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLA MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.4N 107.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 105.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.4N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-10-12 04:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Pamela continues to be affected by some modest northwesterly mid-level shear that has caused the low-level center to be located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection. This was evident in an earlier AMSR2 microwave image that arrived shortly after the release of the previous NHC advisory package. Recent objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers still support an intensity of around 60 kt, and that value is maintained as the initial wind speed for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm late tomorrow morning and early afternoon to better provide a better assessment of Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field. The guidance suggests that the shear that has been plaguing Pamela should relax during the next 12-24 hours, allowing for strengthening. Nearly all of the statistical and dynamical model intensity guidance calls for strengthening, but they have trended toward a lower peak intensity primarily due to the fact that Pamela so far has not strengthened as much as expected. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Pamela to become a hurricane overnight or early Tuesday, and shows the system nearing major hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of mainland Mexico early Wednesday. Although the official forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance, it is supported by the GFS model which has been consistent in significantly deepening Pamela during the cyclone's approach to Mexico on Tuesday and Tuesday night. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur as the system moves over the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico, and Pamela is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low or dissipate by Thursday. Pamela is moving north-northwestward or 335/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy again remains unchanged this advisory. The cyclone is forecast to turn northward tonight as it reaches the western portion of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. A faster northeastward motion is expected by late Tuesday as Pamela recurves ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough moving into northwestern Mexico. The track guidance is in very good agreement on the overall evolution of the steering pattern, but there are still some differences in how quickly Pamela accelerates northeastward on Tuesday. Therefore, the NHC forecast is once again close to the various multi-model consensus aids. Although the cyclone could dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it reaches the southwestern coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life- threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.9N 108.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 19.2N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 23.1N 106.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 26.1N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 14/1200Z 29.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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