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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-08-14 22:31:46| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-08-14 16:54:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141453 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 Grace is sending mixed signals on its intensity this morning. The storm has been producing persistent convective bursting since overnight, which would suggest that some strengthening has occurred. The latest subjective data-T numbers are 2.5 (35 kt) from TAFB and SAB, while objective satellite estimates are higher, roughly between 45-50 kt. Then, an ASCAT pass from 1302 UTC showed winds between 35-40 kt. Given these data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Grace this afternoon to provide a better estimate of the storm's intensity. Grace is speeding along toward the west (280 degrees) at 19 kt. Mid-level ridging, entrenched over the western Atlantic, is expected to weaken slightly during the next couple of days. This evolution should cause Grace to slow down to 10-15 kt by Sunday night and Monday and take on a west-northwestward heading. That general trajectory should continue through the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48-60 hours or so, showing Grace moving near or across the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. On days 3-5, there is a little more spread, with a few models keeping the system on a southern track across Cuba while others show tracks across the Bahamas. The NHC track forecast splits this difference and continues to show a track running between Cuba and the Bahamas, very close to the HCCA consensus solution. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be 10 kt or less for the next 36 hours or so while Grace is approaching the islands of the Greater Antilles. The thermodynamic environment also appears conducive for strengthening, but the system's continued fast motion is likely to be an inhibiting factor on the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the conservative side, bringing Grace's intensity up to 50 kt by the time the storm reaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but it should be noted that this forecast is on the lower side of the guidance. Only one model, the HWRF, brings Grace to hurricane strength, but it does this by having the storm move farther north and avoid land interaction altogether. The intensity forecast is highly uncertain on days 3-5 since it depends on exactly how much Grace moves over the Greater Antilles, and there is some model signal that increasing northeasterly upper-level winds over the Bahamas and Florida could become a negative factor. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and early Sunday, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic by early Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Florida next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.2N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.8N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.1N 66.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 48H 16/1200Z 18.6N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER DOMINICAN REP. 60H 17/0000Z 19.4N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER DOMINICAN REP. 72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 18/1200Z 22.8N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 25.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-08-14 16:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141452 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO...AND FOR THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO TO CABO ENGANO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO CABO ENGANO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 57.9W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 57.9W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.8N 60.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 66.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.6N 68.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 70.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 72.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.8N 77.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.4N 81.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 57.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Remnants of Fred Forecast Discussion Number 20

2021-08-14 16:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141450 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 A combination of shear caused by an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and land interaction has caused Fred to degenerate into an open wave. Surface observations from Cuba do not show a closed circulation, and satellite imagery shows at least two vorticity centers embedded in a large trough. The strongest convection is currently near and southeast of a vorticity center near the Isle of Youth. The initial position is a mean position between the vorticity center, and the initial intensity of 30 kt is based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data to the northeast of the estimated center position. The global models forecast the upper-level trough to move northward and weaken during the next 24 h and indicate that Fred will re-form a closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning. Given the strength of the upper-level trough, that forecast may well be too bullish. However, given the agreement in the guidance, the revised intensity forecast will call for Fred to regain tropical cyclone status at about the 24 h point, followed by gradual strengthening in a less than ideal upper-level wind environment until landfall along the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, the system should weaken and dissipate between 96-120 h. The initial motion is a very uncertain 300/10. The system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the north as the system nears the northern Gulf coast in 60-72 h. While the forecast guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario, there is uncertainty as to where the center of Fred will be when it re-forms. Therefore, users should not concentrate on the details of the forecast track, which could change quite a bit during the next 24-36 h. Although all coastal watches and warnings are discontinued at this time, the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development and the potential need for watches and warnings on the northern Gulf coast later in the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding, across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area later in the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 23.3N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE 12H 15/0000Z 24.1N 84.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE 24H 15/1200Z 25.7N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 16/0000Z 27.4N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 28.7N 87.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 30.0N 87.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 31.5N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 35.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Remnants of Fred Forecast Advisory Number 20

2021-08-14 16:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 141448 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 83.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 83.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W...DISTURBANCE FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.1N 84.2W...DISTURBANCE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.7N 85.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.4N 86.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.7N 87.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.0N 87.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 35.0N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 83.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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