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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-15 04:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 260 WTNT22 KNHC 150253 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, ANGUILLA, ST. KITTS AND NEVIS, AND MONTSERRAT, AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO CABO CAUCEDO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 62.4W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 62.4W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.3N 64.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 67.0W...NEAR PUERTO RICO MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 69.1W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 70.9W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 73.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.2N 75.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.7N 81.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 25.6N 84.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 62.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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Remnants of Fred Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-08-15 04:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150248 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Deep convection has increased in association with the remnants of Fred this evening with some lose banding noted in both satellite imagery and radar data from Key West. Satellite imagery and surface observations also indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined since this afternoon, but the system still lacks a well-defined center. Therefore, the system has not regained tropical cyclone status yet. The initial intensity remains 30 kt and is based on a few buoy and C-MAN observations over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Lower Florida Keys which have reported peak winds of 25-30 kt over the past several hours. The C-MAN site on Sand Key has reported slightly stronger winds, but that site is elevated. The system has moved little during the past several hours, and since it lacks a well-defined center, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 300/08 kt. The disturbance is expected to begin a more definitive northwestward motion overnight or Sunday morning as it moves around the western extent of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The system is forecast to turn northward on Monday as it nears the northern Gulf of coast. Although the track guidance is in good agreement on the overall motion scenario, there is some cross-track spread that appears to be related to where the center re-forms in the short term. Overall there was some eastward shift to the guidance envelope and the official forecast was nudged in that direction, but it still lies to the west of the consensus aids. The NHC track forecast is closest to the GFEX track, which is a consensus of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models. The upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to weaken and move northward during the next 12-24 hours. This should allow for a somewhat more conducive environment for the system to regain tropical cyclone status and strengthen on Sunday. However, continued moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear is likely to hinder significant development, and the NHC intensity forecast only calls for gradual strengthening through 36-48 hours. After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly and the global models indicate the circulation will dissipate by 96 hours. Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect, the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development. Watches are very likely to be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the day. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the day. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 23.8N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 25.3N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 28.3N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 29.7N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 31.4N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 33.1N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Fred Forecast Advisory Number 22
2021-08-15 04:48:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150248 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY SUNDAY. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 84.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.3N 85.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N 86.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.3N 87.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.7N 88.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.4N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.1N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 84.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Information (.shp)
2021-08-15 04:38:53| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 02:38:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-14 22:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142043 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 Grace is a poorly organized tropical storm this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters were unable to close off a circulation, at least at their flight level of 5000 feet, but dropsonde observations and reports from some of the islands in the Lesser Antilles suggest that there's at least a broad cyclonic circulation at the surface. The various data also indicate that the center has sped up, or re-formed, and is located farther southwest than previously estimated. Based on the aircraft data and earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. Both the future track and intensity of Grace have a high level of uncertainty. For the track, the forecast is likely to be complicated by the fact that the system doesn't currently have a tight low-level circulation, and the center could always re-form at any time, especially with convection ongoing farther to the north. In addition, the storm has not yet slowed down, and in fact, the initial motion is estimated to be toward the west (275 degrees) at 23 kt. The guidance envelope has made a notable southward shift due to the adjustment of the initial position, and the models insist that Grace will primarily have a west-northwestward heading for much of the forecast period with the speed gradually decreasing during the next 48 hours or so. The NHC track forecast has been shifted southward accordingly, although any re-formations of the center could cause this track to shift again in future advisory cycles. If Grace slows down as forecast--which is obviously not a sure thing--environmental conditions should be conducive to allow for some strengthening before the system reaches the Greater Antilles. The southward adjustment in the official forecast now takes Grace over the Greater Antilles for a longer period of time, and the official intensity forecast is therefore lowered beyond 48 hours. This is a middle-of-the-road solution, and actually lower than most of the intensity guidance. If the forecast track shifts north or south, the system could strengthen further over water. Alternatively, Grace could go the way of Fred and dissipate before the end of the 5-day period. In the end, the exact track of the center and the intensity of the system will likely not be as important as the heavy rainfall that is forecast to fall across the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles during the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida next week, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.5N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.1N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.3N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR DOMINICAN REP. 60H 17/0600Z 19.2N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR HAITI 72H 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER CUBA 96H 18/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER CUBA 120H 19/1800Z 24.8N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Berg
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