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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-08-16 05:01:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 643 WTNT43 KNHC 160301 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 A small well-defined low pressure system located just east-northeast of Bermuda has produced persistent deep convection since this morning. Radar imagery from Bermuda along with geostationary and polar orbiting microwave satellite data show that the convection is sufficiently well organized to meet the definition for a tropical cyclone. Therefore advisories have been started on Tropical Depression Eight. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on believable winds near that value in a pair of recent ASCAT overpasses. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were a little higher, so this estimate could be slightly conservative. Confidence in the forecast is reasonably high for the next 48 to 72 h. The depression should make a slow clockwise turn around Bermuda, steered by a mid-level ridge currently centered off the coast of the Carolinas. Warm SSTs should provide ample fuel to support at least slight strengthening during this period, despite expected northerly shear, and this is shown by all of the intensity guidance. The NHC forecast is very near the multi-model consensus for both track and intensity through that period. Beyond 72 h, the track and intensity models diverge quickly. The HWRF and COAMPS-TC models rapidly intensify the system to major hurricane strength. A stronger, deeper vortex would likely be steered generally westward through the end of the forecast period, influenced by a deeper-layer steering flow. However, the global models have a much weaker, shallower system which turns northward, and then possibly accelerates northeastward by day 5. As a result, the spread in the track guidance is nearly 800 n mi by day 5, with the GFS and HWRF taking the extreme positions to the northeast and southwest, respectively. The official track forecast takes a middle approach, and is between the various consensus aids at days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly more conservative, and is below the consensus at the end of the period. Significant changes to the forecast may be required in subsequent advisory packages. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 33.2N 62.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 32.4N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 31.5N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 31.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 31.0N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 31.0N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 31.2N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 32.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 33.5N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-08-16 05:00:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 160259 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY: THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.7W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 175 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.7W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.4N 62.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.1N 64.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.0N 64.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.0N 66.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.2N 67.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 33.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 62.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 26

2021-08-16 04:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160244 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Fred remains a sheared tropical cyclone however the overall organization of the system has improved somewhat since this afternoon. The low-level center is embedded near the western edge of the primary convective mass, and there has been an overall increase in deep convection near and to the east of the center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Fred this evening has reported that the pressure has fallen to 999 mb and it has found winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The plane found a very small area of slightly stronger flight-level and SFMR winds well east of the center, but those winds appear to have been associated with a strong convective cell and are likely not representative of the system's overall intensity. Fred is moving north-northwestward or 330/08 kt, and this motion should continue overnight. The dynamical model guidance indicates that the tropical cyclone will turn northward on Monday as it approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle. A north- northeastward motion around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should commence by the time the system makes landfall, and this general heading should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days. The dynamical models envelope did not change much and the latest consensus aids were essentially along the previous NHC track. As a result, little alteration was made to the previous official track forecast. The cyclone is located within an area of moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. However, most of the intensity guidance continues to suggest that Fred will strengthen a little over the next 12-18 hours. As the system nears the northern Gulf coast, the SHIPS guidance forecasts some increase in shear and the intensity models reflect this by showing a leveling off of Fred's intensity at that time. After landfall, Fred should weaken quickly and dissipate over the Tennessee Valley in a little more than 48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement within the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast, including portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland toward the Tennessee Valley, heavy rainfall and flooding may impact the southern and central Appalachians, and the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.3N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.6N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 30.2N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 32.3N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 34.4N 84.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 26

2021-08-16 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 052 WTNT21 KNHC 160243 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO NAVARRE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/ JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 85.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 85.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 86.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.2N 86.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.3N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.4N 84.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 85.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 11

2021-08-16 04:41:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160241 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated Grace earlier this evening and found maximum flight level winds just less than 40 kt at 925 mb, which supports Grace's estimated 30 kt intensity. The plane also found that the depression still has a slightly elongated but closed surface circulation. During the past few hours, satellite imagery has shown a slight increase in convective banding features and associated heavy rain associated with Grace. That activity highlights the primary threat from Grace during the next 24 hours: prolonged heavy rainfall that could lead to flash and urban flooding along with the potential for mudslides over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The forecast for Grace is incredibly challenging. Imminent interactions with the high terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba could cause Grace to dissipate as soon as Monday evening. However, a track south of Cuba, as shown by recent runs of the GFS and COAMPS-TC, may allow Grace to maintain its tropical cyclone status and possibly even intensify. The HWRF even shows it becoming a hurricane over the western Caribbean, with the caveat that the model has produced several poor forecasts for Grace thus far. Although it is not explicitly forecast, slight intensification is still possible tonight or tomorrow morning before the center of Grace moves inland. After that time, the NHC forecast assumes Grace will continue as a tropical depression through 72 h. Once/if Grace makes it to the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in 3-4 days, it could have an opportunity to reorganize and intensify, and this is again shown in the official intensity forecast. That said, users are encouraged to not focus on the exact track or intensity forecasts at days 4 and 5. The track guidance has shifted south for this advisory, and generally calls for Grace to move westward to west-northwestward through the forecast period. The official track forecast has been shifted a little south once again, but is north of the most recent multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. 3. There is a risk of some wind and rainfall impacts across Cuba beginning Tuesday morning, but forecast uncertainty is much higher than usual. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.3N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.7N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.7N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 19.5N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.4N 78.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 21.2N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 22.2N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 20/0000Z 23.5N 89.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 21/0000Z 24.5N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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