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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-08-15 16:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151457 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 Grace remains a disorganized system, with only slight evidence of curved bands of deep convection on satellite imagery. WSR-88D radar data from San Juan show broad rotation of the precipitation echoes, but no definite center. The advisory intensity is kept at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB. We are waiting for additional observations in the system from an upcoming NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission into Grace in a few hours. Grace is in an environment of moderate shear and reasonably moist mid-level environmental air. Therefore some strengthening is expected before the system reaches Hispaniola tomorrow morning. Thereafter, the future intensity of Grace is dependent on how much the circulation interacts with the islands of the Greater Antilles. Weakening is likely due to the expected passage over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, and some restrengthening could occur if the center emerges over water near the Windward Passage. Grace is forecast to maintain minimal tropical storm strength while moving near the northern coast of Cuba. There is, however, considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast in 2-5 days. The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 285/14 kt. A well-defined mid-level high pressure system over the southwestern Atlantic should maintain a general west-northwestward motion for the next several days. The global models are in reasonable agreement on a track near/over the Greater Antilles, including Cuba, during the next several days and over the central Gulf of Mexico in the latter part of the forecast period. The official forecast has been changed little from the previous one and is very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCA, solution. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over parts of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over northwestern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday and Monday night. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.2N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.8N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 18.5N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0000Z 19.3N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 20.3N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 18/0000Z 21.3N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR N. COAST OF CUBA 72H 18/1200Z 22.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/1200Z 24.6N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 20/1200Z 26.5N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 24

2021-08-15 16:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151452 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the remnants of Fred have re-developed into a tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-level center near the northern end of a broadly curved convective band. The Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1008 mb, along with 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and SFMR wind estimates near 35 kt about 70 n mi northeast of the center. Based on these developments and data, the system was upgraded back to Tropical Storm Fred a couple of hours ago. The center re-formed northward during the redevelopment process, and the initial position is re-located to the north of the previous advisory position. While the forecast guidance is basically unchanged in calling for a north-northwest motion followed by a turn toward the north near landfall on the northern Gulf coast, the new initial position requires the forecast track to be shifted about 40 n mi to the east of the previous track through the landfall time. Fred is now expected to make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle sometime Monday afternoon or evening. Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly vertical shear until landfall. The intensity guidance forecasts gradual intensification before landfall, and the official intensity forecast follows the guidance in calling for a peak intensity of 45 kt. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts across southern Florida, the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 26.1N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 27.4N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 30.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 32.5N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0000Z 34.7N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 24

2021-08-15 16:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 151451 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM FROM INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/ JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO NAVARRE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ALABAMA TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.9W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.9W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.4N 85.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.5N 86.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.7N 85.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 84.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 9

2021-08-15 16:46:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151446 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N 67.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 69.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 71.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.3N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 76.6W...NEAR N. COAST CUBA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.6N 84.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N 89.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 66.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Linda Forecast Information (.shp)

2021-08-15 16:34:57| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 14:34:57 GMT

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