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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-08-16 16:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 161444 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Although the center of the depression is embedded beneath deep convection, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are not a consensus T2.5 quite yet. Therefore, the depression is still estimated to be producing maximum winds of 30 kt. Very warm waters and low to moderate deep-layer shear are expected to support strengthening during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, strong northerly to northeasterly shear of 25-30 kt is likely halt any intensification. For the most part, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the tightly clustered SHIPS, LGEM, HCCA, and IVCN aids. As we've seen in several cases this year, the HWRF is a notable high outlier, bringing the system to category 2 hurricane strength in 2-3 days. Given the expected shear, that solution does not appear likely at this point. The depression has been moving southward, or 185/8 kt, and it is expected to rotate around a mid-tropospheric high located over the western Atlantic. Track models are in general agreement that the system will make a clockwise loop in the coming days, with most of the disagreement being in how sharp the turn will be. In part due to the system's initial motion, the updated NHC track forecast now shows a wider, sweeping loop and is close to the TVCA consensus aid. It should be noted that the ECMWF and HCCA aids are even farther south and show an even more gradual turn. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 31.3N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 30.6N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 30.2N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 29.9N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 29.8N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 30.1N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 31.0N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 33.1N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 28

2021-08-16 16:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161438 CCA TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE. CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA IS EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND FROM NAVARRE TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.6N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.0N 84.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 38.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 85.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 27

2021-08-16 10:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160850 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and satellite imagery indicated that Fred's low-level circulation center briefly emerged out from underneath the southwestern edge of the convective cloud shield between 0200-0400 UTC. The circulation center, however, has recently moved back underneath the edge of the main region of convection, with a new bust of thunderstorms having developed over or near the low-level center. Having said that, Fred still remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with Tallahassee NOAA Doppler radar data indicating that the upper-level circulation at around 30,000 ft is tilted about 40 nmi northeast of the low-level center. The last reports from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated that the central pressure had risen from 999 mb to 1004 mb during the time the low-level center was fully exposed southwest of the deep convection. However, the pressure has likely fallen again now the center is back underneath the convection. An intensity of 45 kt is being maintained for this advisory based on the last reliable reconnaissance SFMR data of about 45 kt, which corresponds well with a T3.0/45 kt Dvorak satellite shear-pattern intensity estimate. Fred is moving northward now, or 355/08 kt. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement that Fred will continue moving in a general northward motion today as the cyclone moves through a break in the subtropical ridge that is oriented east-to-west across northern Florida. Landfall is expected in the western Florida Panhandle region by late afternoon or evening today. The track guidance has shifted slightly to the east of the previous advisory track, and the new official forecast track has been nudged in that direction, but not as far east as the tightly packed consensus models owing to the strength of the ridge noted in 16/0000 UTC upper-air data. Fred is forecast to remain in moderate vertical wind shear conditions throughout the 48-h forecast period. However, the shear vector is expected to gradually back around from the current southwesterly direction to more of a south-southwesterly component right up until landfall occurs, which will align more with Fred's track direction. This reduction in the effective shear across the cyclone should allow for some additional strengthening until landfall occurs, with the distinct possibility that Fred could reach a peak intensity of 55 kt in 18 hours. After landfall, the combination of land interaction and the vertical shear increasing to more than 20 kt should result in rapid weakening, with Fred forecast to dissipate by 60 hours over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts northward and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 29.1N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 31.0N 85.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 33.1N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 35.6N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-08-16 10:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 160850 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the tropical depression located about 100 nmi east of Bermuda has been moving southward and also remains a sheared tropical cyclone -- the ongoing saga of the Atlantic basin thus far this hurricane season. Convection has increased and developed closer to the center and a late-arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 26-27 kt to the south of the well-defined circulation center. Based on those data, the slightly improved convective structure noted in both satellite and radar data, and satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 195/04 kt. The small cyclone is starting to make the clockwise turn toward the south-southwest and eventually southwest that the global and regional models have been advertising the past couple of days. The latest NHC model guidance now shows less of a turn to the northwest after 72 hours, with the exception of the GFS, GFS-ensemble, and HMON models, which continue to take the cyclone northward and northeastward around Bermuda on day 4 and 5. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track through 60 hours, and then widens the track slightly thereafter, but still shows a complete clockwise turn. This track scenario is to the right of the consensus models at all forecast periods, and is of low confidence on days 4 and 5. The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain at or below 10 kt for the next 36 hours or so, and that is most likely the time when the cyclone will strengthen. Thereafter, an increase in the shear to 20 kt or more is expected to cap the intensification process. The HWRF model turn the cyclone into a major hurricane by 72 hours, but this scenario is considered to be an extreme outlier given the amount of shear forecast to affect the system on days 3-5. So far this season, the HWRF model has been very shear resistant and has had a high intensity bias. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models through 60 hours, and then is below those models due to the high-bias contribution of the HWRF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 62.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 31.6N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 31.0N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 30.7N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 30.7N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 30.8N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 31.1N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 32.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 34.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-08-16 10:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 160848 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.9W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.9W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.6N 63.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N 63.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.7N 64.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.7N 65.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.8N 66.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.1N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 32.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 34.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 62.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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