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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-16 04:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 989 WTNT22 KNHC 160240 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 68.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 68.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 68.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 70.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N 72.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 75.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.4N 78.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.2N 81.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N 89.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 68.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Information (.shp)
2021-08-16 04:38:21| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 02:38:21 GMT
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-08-16 04:35:03| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 15 2021
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 24
2021-08-16 04:33:34| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-15 22:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152051 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 An earlier ASCAT pass over Grace suggested that the maximum winds were 25-30 kt and this has been confirmed by observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Aircraft and scatterometer data also suggest that the circulation is elongated and disorganized. Based on these data, the system is being downgraded to a 30-kt depression at this time. Since the system is below storm strength and is passing by Puerto Rico, the Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been discontinued. The island of Hispaniola is kept under a Tropical Storm Watch given the possibility that the system could restrengthen tonight or tomorrow morning before moving over land. Most of the reliable guidance shows little change in strength over the next 2-3 days. This seems reasonable since the circulation will be interacting with the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola and Cuba for the next 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is near or a little above the DSHIPS and LGEM guidance during that time. Some restrengthening is possible later in the forecast period when the system is expected to move over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the global models are not very bullish on intensification in 4-5 days, perhaps due to drier air. The system has moved mainly westward today, but the track models are generally in agreement on a west-northwestward motion over the forecast period. This is consistent with a well-defined mid-level ridge staying in place over the southwestern Atlantic and across Florida during this week. The official track forecast has been shifted a little south of the previous one, following the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. 3. There is a risk of some wind and rainfall impacts across the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty is much higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.0N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.6N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 18.2N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 19.2N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0600Z 21.0N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 18/1800Z 22.1N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 24.0N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 25.0N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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