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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-13 22:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Deep convection has managed to persist over the center of Carlos throughout the day today, although the appearance of this convection has become more ragged as the day has progressed. The blended CI values from TAFB and SAB suggest the system still has an intensity of 45 kt. A recent ASCAT overpass only partially captured the circulation with peak wind vectors of 39 kt. Compensating for possible undersampling by the instrument over only a portion of such a compact cyclone, maintaining 45 kt seems reasonable for the initial advisory intensity. Dry and stable air lies just to the north and west of Carlos, and occasional intrusions of this air into the cyclone's circulation could disrupt convection. However, the overnight diurnal convective maximum could overcome these intrusions over the next couple of nights. Therefore, only slight weakening is indicated through that time period. By 48 h, Carlos is expected to move into the stable airmass which should further disrupt its convection, causing additional weakening. By late in the forecast period the cyclone is forecast to be near or have crossed the 26 degree C SST isotherm. This should cause any remaining convection to gradually dissipate. Although not shown in the official forecast, it is possible Carlos will degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period, as suggested by the GFS. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very near the various multi-model consensus solutions. Carlos is beginning to show signs of slowing and turning to the left, with the initial motion now 260/6 kt. Model guidance remains in good agreement through 48 h, with the storm slowing and turning west-southwest as a mid-level ridge becomes oriented SW-NE to the north of the cyclone. There is still a vast amount of track guidance spread beyond 72 h, but not as much as earlier today. The GFS, which continues to be the easternmost solution has shifted well west of its previous track, showing Carlos turning northwest in a few days in response to a building ridge to its east, and weakening ridge to the north. The remaining guidance maintains the ridge to the north and shows Carlos turning west by midweek, then west-northwest by late this week. The official NHC forecast is near the previous one through 48 h. Beyond 48 h, large adjustments were required to accommodate the continuing westward trends in the guidance. Despite the abrupt shift in the official forecast for the latter half of the period, it remains well east of the consensus and the majority of available track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 11.7N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 11.4N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 11.0N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 10.6N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 10.3N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 10.3N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 10.7N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 11.4N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-06-13 22:35:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 132035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.4N 127.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.0N 128.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.6N 129.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.3N 130.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.3N 131.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 10.7N 132.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 11.4N 132.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-06-13 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131448 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Deep convection has persisted over the center of Carlos throughout the night and a new convective burst with cloud tops of -60 to -70 degrees C is occuring over the estimated center location. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing the initial intensity to 45 kt. This seems reasonable, as an earlier ASCAT-B overpass had several vectors of 40-41 kt, and the vortex likely has spun up further due to the ongoing deep convection. Carlos continues to move west at around 7 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is forecast to become oriented northeast to southwest later today and prevail over the next couple days which should cause the cyclone to move slowly west-southwestward. After 48 h the models diverge significantly in their track solutions, with the GFS and ECMWF turning the system abruptly northward, while most of the other guidance has a more westward then west-northwestward motion beyond 72 h. There is a mid- to upper-level low currently located west of Mexico that the models are handling differently. The easternmost track solutions for Carlos weaken this feature more quickly and replace it with a ridge to the east of Carlos, while the western solutions keep the feature around, delaying the more poleward motion of the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, but is shifted west thereafter. Still, the NHC forecast track is well east of the consensus after 48 h. Needless to say the track forecast confidence beyond day 2 is low. Northerly shear of 10-15 kt and the proximity to dry and stable mid-level air to its north should cause periodic weakening of the storm's deep convection, which would prevent any further strengthening, and Carlos is expected to hold its current intensity for the next couple of days. Thereafter, regardless of the western or eastern track model solutions, Carlos is expected to encounter an even drier and more stable airmass and cooler sea surface temperatures. This should cause a weakening trend to begin by mid-week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 11.8N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 11.6N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 11.1N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 10.7N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 10.4N 128.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 10.4N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 11.0N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 12.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 15.2N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-06-13 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 131447 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 125.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.6N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.1N 127.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.7N 128.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.4N 128.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.4N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 12.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.2N 129.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-06-13 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130836 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Infrared and scatterometer satellite data indicate that Carlos remains a compact tropical cyclone. Two ASCAT passes between 0400-0500 UTC revealed a radius of maximum wind of 10-12 nmi and tropical-storm-force winds that only extended outward about 20 nmi. Cloud tops colder than -50C only extend outward about 60 nmi from the center. The earlier ASCAT-A/-B passes contained peak surface wind vectors of 37 kt/40 kt, respectively, so the estimated intensity has been increased to 40 kt for this advisory, which could be a little conservative owing to the small size of the cyclone and possible undersampling of the scatterometer instrument. The initial motion estimate is due west or 270/07 kt. There is little change to the previous NHC track forecast or reasoning. The latest model runs are in good agreement on Carlos turning toward the west-southwest later today, followed by a southwestward motion on Monday and Tuesday as a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone builds southward. By day 3, the models diverge significantly when the deep-layer steering currents collapse, followed by possible rapid weakening. The ECMWF weakens Carlos into a shallow remnant low by 72 h, with the shallow vortex then being driven southwestward by a strong low-level ridge to the north and northeast. In contrast, the GFS and some of the other global and regional models keep Carlos stronger and vertically deeper, which results in a ridge to the east lifting the cyclone out toward the north. Given the large spread in the track guidance on days 4 and 5, the new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly slower than the previous advisory track, and close to a blend of the TVCE and GFEX simple consensus track models. Carlos' small size in combination with the relatively low deep-layer vertical shear of 5-10 kt for the next 36 h or so would normally argue for significant strengthening. However, the cyclone's proximity to very dry mid-level and cooler sea-surface just to its north and northwest is expected to result in the periodic entrainment of stable air for the 72 h or so, resulting in intermittent disruptions of the central deep convection. Thus, little change in strength is forecast during that time. Thereafter, the combination of increasing southwesterly wind shear and sub-27C sea-surface temperatures along the track is expected to induce gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 11.9N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 11.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 11.2N 126.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 10.7N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 10.3N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 10.2N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 10.6N 128.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 12.0N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 14.0N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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