je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-14 16:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141438 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 73.7W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 73.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.6N 70.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 39.8N 65.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 43.6N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 73.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-14 10:36:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140835 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The satellite presentation of Carlos has continued to erode early this morning, with only three remnant convective cells noted rotating around the center. As a result, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have fallen sharply. Thus, the initial intensity has also been lowered to 35 kt, which could be generous. The initial motion estimate is 255/06 kt. Carlos is forecast by the global and regional models to be steered west-southwestward to westward throughout the 5-day period by a strong low- to mid-level subtropical ridge situated to its north and northwest. The latest model guidance has come into much better agreement on this track scenario, especially compared to this time yesterday, and the new NHC track forecast follows suit and lies close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus track models. Although sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain warm enough to support a tropical cyclone, the continued ingestion of cooler, drier, and more stable air that now completely surrounds Carlos is forecast to continue to erode the central deep convection, with the cyclone weakening a tropical depression later today. By 36-48h, southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into a remnant low. Although there will likely be periodic short-lived bursts of convection, especially at night, the general trend should be gradual weakening throughout the 120-h forecast period, perhaps even faster than indicated by the official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 11.4N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
carlos
storm
Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-14 10:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
carlos
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-06-14 04:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140238 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The satellite appearance of Carlos has degraded this evening. A ragged area of deep convection persists near and to the west of the estimated center position, but infrared cloud top temperatures have recently warmed and the system's organization has not improved. Therefore, the initial intensity of Carlos is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. This is consistent with objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates between 35-40 kt, as well as an average of the subjective Dvorak classifications received from TAFB and SAB. Carlos continues to be steered west-southwestward by a mid-level ridge to its north and northwest. This general motion is expected to persist for the next couple of days. Fortunately, the vast majority of reliable track guidance has come into much better agreement for day 3 and beyond, showing the weakening cyclone moving generally westward to the south of a low-level ridge. Substantial adjustments were once again made to the official NHC track forecast beyond 48 h to show a westward to west-northwestward motion on days 3-5, which is consistent with the latest guidance consensus. The updated track forecast lies closer to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and TVCE consensus aids, although it is still somewhat slower and right-of-track to allow for a gradual shift in the NHC forecast. Carlos is forecast to move over warm sea-surface temperatures in an environment with fairly low vertical wind shear for the next 12 h or so. However, surrounding dry air may periodically disrupt the cyclone's convective structure, and thus limit its ability to become more organized and intensify. Therefore, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected. Thereafter, decreasing oceanic heat content and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear within a drier mid-level environment should induce a weakening trend. The latest NHC forecast calls for Carlos to weaken into a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Marginal environmental conditions and continued bouts of dry air will affect Carlos through late week, and it is plausible that Carlos will become a remnant low even earlier than forecast, perhaps by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 11.6N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 11.3N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 10.9N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 10.2N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 10.2N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 10.3N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 11.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 11.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
carlos
storm
Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-06-14 04:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 579 WTPZ23 KNHC 140236 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 127.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 127.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.3N 127.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.9N 128.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.2N 131.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.2N 132.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.3N 133.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 11.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 11.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 127.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Tags: number
carlos
storm
advisory
Sites : [244] [245] [246] [247] [248] [249] [250] [251] [252] [253] [254] [255] [256] [257] [258] [259] [260] [261] [262] [263] next »