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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-06-17 22:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 880 WTNT43 KNHC 172034 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection is beginning to form a broad curved band over the eastern portion of the system, similar to what one might see in a developing subtropical cyclone. Although the upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for development, with lots of westerly shear over the area, the global models do suggest tropical/subtropical cyclogenesis within the next 12 hours or so. Given the proximity of the disturbance to land, which requires tropical storm warnings at this time, advisories are being initiated on this system as a potential tropical cyclone. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the circulation was still rather broad. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is currently investigating the system and has not yet found a well-defined center. Maximum winds based on surface observations and the scatterometer pass are near 25 kt. Numerical intensity guidance do not indicate a great deal of strengthening before the system reaches the coastline, and the official forecast is at the high end of the guidance. Since the center is not that well-defined at this time, the initial motion estimate, 360/8 is quite uncertain. The system is expected to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next day or so and then, after landfall along the central Gulf Coast, turn toward the northeast on the northwest side of a mid-level anticyclone near Florida. The official track forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF predictions. It should be noted, however, that these models suggest some reformation of the center near the Louisiana coast rather than just motion from the southwest Gulf to the expected coastal landfall point. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf coast and spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Brennan

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-06-17 22:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 172032 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA...TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 92.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 16

2021-06-16 16:48:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 161448 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery suggests that Carlos's center has become less defined since last evening's scatterometer passes, and the overall circulation is losing definition as it becomes embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Despite the few sporadic bursts of convection that have been occurring, the system has been unable to generate persistent organized deep convection near its center for quite some time, and Carlos is therefore being designated as a remnant low with maximum winds of 25 kt. Moderate westerly shear and ingestion of drier air should cause the remnant low to weaken further, and likely dissipate within the ITCZ in 2 to 3 days. Geostationary and microwave imagery indicates that Carlos has sunk a little farther south than previously estimated, and its 12-hour heading has been toward the west-southwest (240/6 kt). The bulk of the track models show that the remnant low should resume a westward motion later today and then maintain a steady west to west-northwest heading through Friday, steered by the low-level trade winds. The new NHC official track forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the GFS-ECMWF consensus, and due to the southward-adjusted initial position, is about a half a degree south of the previous forecast. This is the last advisory on Carlos. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 8.6N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/0000Z 8.6N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1200Z 8.7N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 9.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 9.2N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-06-16 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 161447 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 135.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 135.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 135.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 8.6N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 8.7N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.0N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 9.2N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.6N 135.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-06-16 10:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 Carlos has maintained a small area of deep convection to the south and northeast of the well-defined low-level center of circulation. However, the convection has decreased in coverage and has become more linear over the past 3 h. Despite the ragged convective appearance in infrared satellite imagery, ASCAT-A/-B passes at 0438Z and 0554Z, respectively, indicated that the small cyclone was still producing winds of 28-29 kt in the northwestern quadrant. Therefore, the intensity is being kept at 30 kt for this advisory. Carlos is moving a little south of due west or 260/06 kt. As per the previous forecast discussion, a gradual westward turn is expected to occur later today, followed by a westward to west-northwestward motion thereafter as the cyclone weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, being steered more by the long-fetch easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and lies near a blend of the TVCE and NOAA-HCCA consensus track models. The only positive factor that Carlos has going for it is the warm water beneath the cyclone where sea-surface temperatures (SST) are 27.5 deg C. Surrounding the small cyclone, however, is a very dry and cool airmass, with stable stratocumulus clouds now wrapping into the system, while deep-layer vertical wind shear of more than 20 kt has been increasing from the west. Although SSTs are expected to be warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone for the next few days, the unfavorable combination of strong shear and a drier airmass is expected to cause Carlos to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low by late today, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 9.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 9.2N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 9.2N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z 9.4N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 9.6N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 9.8N 141.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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