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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-14 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142035 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Deep convection has weakened some this afternoon near the center of the depression, and the cloud pattern definitely is showing signs of shear. However, visible satellite imagery still indicates that it has a tight circulation, and past experience suggests with that kind of low-level structure, the depression is close to becoming a tropical storm. None of the conventional intensity estimates, however, show the system as a storm yet, and since scatterometer data also totally missed this morning, 30 kt will stay as the initial wind speed. No change is made to the intensity forecast from the last advisory, with the system having about 24 hours of time over marginally warm water to intensify. Afterwards, the cyclone should quickly lose convection and transition into an extratropical low, and dissipate near Newfoundland. This forecast is somewhat higher than the the guidance consensus on this cycle, but given that I was on the low side on the first forecast compared to guidance, I decided to hold steady and not waffle like the models are prone to doing. The depression is moving northeastward at about 16 kt, a little slower than before. Model guidance is in excellent agreement on large trough over eastern North America causing the depression to accelerate quite a bit in that general direction during the next day or two. The northeastward track is forecast to continue until the system dissipates near Newfoundland on Wednesday while it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The model guidance has shifted a little south of the previous advisory, and the NHC track prediction is shifted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 35.5N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 37.5N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 40.9N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-06-14 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142033 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 72.0W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 72.0W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.5N 68.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 40.9N 62.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 72.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141442 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC has been following since yesterday off the coast of North Carolina has become better organized, with a small central dense overcast over the center and more prominent banding features. The low also has advanced ahead of a nearby diffuse stationary front, with that boundary lying northwest of the center. Considering the small core of the low, ample deep convection, satellite pattern, and that the low is feeding off of the thunderstorm activity (and not the front) -- it is now classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is our best estimate assuming strengthening from the 20-25 kt overnight ASCAT and surface observations. The depression is moving northeastward at about 18 kt. A large mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but faster, over the next couple of days. In about 48 hours, the system is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. Model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast lies near the track consensus. The depression has about 24 hours over marginally warm waters in low-to-moderate shear to strengthen before it moves north of the Gulf Stream and decays. Almost all of the intensity guidance shows the system becoming a tropical storm tonight, and considering the healthy initial structure, the official forecast follows that guidance. The low should lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours due to very cold waters and dissipate near Newfoundland in about 2 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 35.0N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 36.6N 70.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 39.8N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 43.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141431 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 128.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 128.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.9N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.6N 130.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.3N 132.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.2N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.2N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.3N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 10.7N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 11.1N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 128.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 After being nearly devoid of deep convection for much of the night, a new burst of convection has redeveloped near the center of the cyclone's circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. Carlos is moving west-southwest at 7 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is now in good agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days, forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, and a little faster and south of it beyond that time. Most guidance remains to the left of the latest NHC forecast, so additional adjustments may be required later today. Satellite images show a vast area of dry and stable air to the north and west of Carlos, with stratocumulus being drawn into the western portion of the cyclone's circulation. This undoubtedly helped to contribute to the sputtering of convective activity overnight. The ongoing intrusions of dry, stable air should continue to periodically disrupt the development of deep convection over the next day or so, which should cause Carlos to slowly weaken. By 36-48 h, southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into a remnant low by midweek. Thereafter, only sporadic convection is expected to develop in association with the remnant low as it gradually spins down. The latest NHC intensity forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and is in agreement with the bulk of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 11.3N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 10.9N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 10.6N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 10.3N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 10.2N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 10.2N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 10.3N 135.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 10.7N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z 11.1N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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