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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-06-16 10:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160831 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 135.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 135.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 134.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.2N 135.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.2N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.4N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 9.6N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 9.8N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.2N 135.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-16 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160236 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 Carlos continues to produce small, short-lived bursts of convection near its center this evening. While this limited convection lacks significant organization, it remains just active enough to hold onto Carlos as a sheared tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is consistent with several earlier ASCAT passes that showed 25-30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. The depression continues moving just south of due west, or 260/07 kt. A gradual westward to west-northwestward turn is expected during the next day or so as Carlos moves around the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. Although sea-surface temperatures remain warm enough along the forecast track to support more brief convective pulses, 20-25 kt of westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture will inhibit any organized convective development. Carlos will move into a more subsident environment by 24 h, which should seal its fate as it degenerates to a remnant low. The vortex is expected to gradually spin down thereafter, and it should dissipate by late this week. The latest NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 9.6N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-06-16 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 134.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 134.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 134.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-16 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160233 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Bill has become extratropical over the north Atlantic. A partial scatterometer overpass showed 35-40 kt winds to the east-southeast of the center, so the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 45 kt. The extratropical low should continue to weaken and move quickly toward the northeast until it weakens to a trough between 12-24 h. This is the last advisory on Bill by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 43.5N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 16/1200Z 46.5N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-16 04:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 979 WTNT22 KNHC 160232 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 57.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 57.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 57.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 46.5N 53.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.5N 57.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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