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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-18 10:58:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180858 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... *CABO CORRIENTES TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 101.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-06-18 10:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180855 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 The system became a little better organized overnight at the northern end of its associated broad surface trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Satellite images show increasing deep convection along with more curvature to the low clouds, suggesting that the ill-defined center of this system is trying to re-form farther to the north. Since it still lacks a well-defined center, the system remains a potential tropical cyclone. Recent scatterometer data indicate that winds have increased to at least 30 kt and have grown over a larger area on the east side of the circulation. The initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/12. There is fair agreement that this northward motion, with some re-formation of the center, will continue as the system remains steered by a subtropical ridge to the southeast. The low should then turn northeastward and move across the southeastern U.S. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast and the guidance is in fairly good agreement. It should also be noted that model "spaghetti" plots are not doing a good job tracking the center of this system, and could give a very misleading impression on the forecast track if used by themselves. There is still a lot of shear over the Gulf of Mexico and that should continue through landfall. However, the system is somewhat hybrid in nature and the shear shouldn't prevent its intensification to a tropical storm later today (possibly with subtropical characteristics). Model guidance is consistent with slow strengthening until landfall, and the new forecast is close to the previous one. After landfall, most of the global models show a strong band of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds persisting on the southeastern side. The expected large distance from the center necessitates extending the Tropical Storm Warning into the northwestern Florida panhandle. The system will likely dissipate in about 3 days over the southeastern United States. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast with flood impacts spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin today in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 25.2N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/1800Z 27.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 19/0600Z 29.2N 91.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 31.0N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0600Z 32.6N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1800Z 34.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-06-18 10:53:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 180853 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.0N 91.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.2N 91.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.0N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.6N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.5N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 91.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-18 04:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180238 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has changed little in organization during the past several hours, and the associated convection lies well to the east of the broad and poorly defined center. The initial intensity will be held at 25 kt based partially on ship reports from the northeastern and northern parts of the system. Due to the poorly defined center, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/8. The system should move generally northward for the next 24-36 h to a position near the coast of Louisiana, followed by a motion toward the northeast across the southeastern United States as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by an upper-level trough over Texas, northern Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track is basically an update of the previous forecast. It should be noted that the latest GFS run continues to forecast a re-formation of the center to the north sometime on Friday, and the forecast forward motion tries to account for this possibility. The aforementioned upper-level trough is causing shear over the system, and present indications are that some shear will persist through landfall and hinder development. The intensity forecast calls for the low to become a tropical cyclone in about 12 h, followed by some modest strengthening to tropical storm strength at 24-36 h. This would be followed by weakening over land, with the system dissipating over the southeastern United States between 72- 96 h. There is a chance that, due to the interaction with the upper-level trough, the system may take on subtropical cyclone characteristics instead of tropical cyclone characteristics. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast, spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 23.5N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/1200Z 25.0N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 19/0000Z 27.2N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 29.8N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1200Z 34.1N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 21/0000Z 35.6N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-06-18 04:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 180237 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 92.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 92.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 92.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.0N 92.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 27.2N 92.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.1N 86.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 35.6N 83.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 92.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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