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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-06-19 04:42:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190242 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Deep convection has been trying to consolidate closer to the estimated center of Dolores over the past several hours, suggesting that the broad circulation of the cyclone may be starting to contract. The CIMSS ADT and SATCON indicated some strengthening since the previous advisory, which justified increasing the storm's intensity to 45 kt for the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory. The recent Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are in agreement with this value, and therefore 45 kt will be this advisory's initial intensity. Dolores is moving to the northwest at 8 kt around the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its east. A turn to the north-northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to occur through Sunday morning. There is about 120 n mi of spread in the track guidance at 24 h, and with the cyclone's angle of approach to the coast of Mexico, a variation in the track produces a large difference in the coastlines potentially affected by Dolores. The westernmost guidance has the center of the cyclone clipping the coast just north of Manzanillo in about 24 h, while the easternmost solutions make landfall in about 18 h near Punta San Telmo. Overall, the guidance has shifted little this evening, and therefore the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, which lies near the various multi-model track consensus. This track would take the center of Dolores across the coast between Punta San Telmo and Manzanillo early Saturday afternoon. The surrounding environmental conditions are favorable for Dolores to continue to strengthen, with the main inhibiting factor being the broad circulation as indicated by an ASCAT overpass earlier this afternoon. Dolores is currently forecast to peak at an intensity of 55 kt by late Saturday morning before making landfall. How much the circulation consolidates over the next 12-18 h will likely determine if the peak intensity of Dolores prior to landfall is higher or lower than indicated. After landfall, Dolores should rapidly weaken over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, with the guidance in good agreement on dissipating the cyclone by Sunday morning. Other than indicating an earlier dissipation, the new NHC intensity forecast has changed little from the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening tonight and early on Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday afternoon. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.3N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.6N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 20.0N 104.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 22.6N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-06-19 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190237 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.8W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.8W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.6N 103.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N 104.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.6N 104.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 102.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-06-18 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 182034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.6N 103.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 104.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.6N 105.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 102.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-06-18 22:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 182033 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 A few hours ago, an ASCAT-A pass indicated that maximum winds were about 40 kt well east of the ill-defined center of circulation, and the initial wind speed was increased to that value at the intermediate advisory at 18Z. Recent surface observations just offshore of southeastern Louisiana have been reporting maximum winds between 30 and 40 kt. Based on a combination of these data, and since the structure of the system has not changed much during the past few hours, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Although the disturbance has wind speeds of tropical storm intensity, it has not been named a tropical storm yet since its center is ill defined and broad as evident in the Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations. Regardless of its status, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds are spreading across portions of the northern Gulf coast, and these conditions will spread inland through tonight. There has not been much change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone is moving northward at about 14 kt, and a general north to north-northeast motion is expected through landfall, which is likely to occur overnight or early Saturday morning. After the system moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast across the southeast U.S. is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. The models remain in relatively good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous track forecast. There is some opportunity for a little strengthening during the next 6 to 12 hours before the system makes landfall. However, significant intensification is not expected due to the cyclone's broad and asymmetric structure, and ongoing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. After landfall, weakening is forecast, and dissipation is still predicted to occur by 72 hours. However, it should be noted that the ECMWF and UKMET models hold onto the vortex for a while longer. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding tonight and through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast. Flood impacts will spread northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions have begun along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 27.9N 91.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0600Z 29.5N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/1800Z 31.4N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0600Z 32.8N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1800Z 33.8N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/0600Z 34.7N 81.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion potential tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-06-18 22:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 182032 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 91.2W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 91.2W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.5N 90.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.4N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.8N 87.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.8N 84.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.7N 81.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 91.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number potential advisory tropical

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