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Tropical Storm Bill Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-06-15 04:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150237 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 69.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 69.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 70.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 38.9N 65.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 42.6N 59.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 46.5N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 69.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-06-15 04:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 505 WTPZ43 KNHC 150237 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Carlos is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone. The depression was completely devoid of convection for several hours this afternoon with a completely exposed low-level center, but recently a small burst of convection pulsed near and to the west-southwest of the low-level center. Given the unfavorable environment the system is embedded within, this activity is likely to be short-lived. Carlos remains a 30-kt tropical depression with this advisory, in best agreement with the subjective Dvorak classification received from TAFB. The depression is still moving west-southwestward, or 250/10 kt. This general motion will continue for the next 24 h, followed by a westward motion to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge that should continue through Carlos' dissipation. The latest NHC track forecast track is somewhat faster and slightly south of the previous one, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. Despite reasonably warm sea-surface temperatures along its track, Carlos is expected to continue battling intrusions of dry air from its surrounding environment as well as increasing west-southwesterly shear. Therefore, the future looks bleak for Carlos, and the system appears likely to degenerate to a remnant low within the next 24 h or so. This forecast is consistent with the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery, which shows little potential for any sustained, organized convection going forward. The majority of the global guidance now suggests that the remnant low will dissipate by Friday night, which is reflected in this forecast advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 10.5N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 10.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 9.8N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-06-15 04:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 130.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 130.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 130.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.1N 132.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.8N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 130.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-14 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142042 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The convective burst that occurred this morning near the center of Carlos has been gradually dissipating throughout the day. Satellite imagery shows dry and stable air being entrained into the circulation and the cyclone's center has become partially exposed. The latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates that Carlos has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, and this will be the initial advisory intensity. Carlos is moving west-southwest at 8 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is in good agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days, forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The latest NHC track forecast was adjusted to be a little faster and to the south of the previous one to better match the trend in the guidance, and is now near the northern end of the multi-model consensus. The depression is forecast to continue to traverse a dry and stable airmass for the remainder of the week, and ongoing intrusions of this air should inhibit the cyclone from producing long-lived convection. The lack of deep convection should cause Carlos to continue a slow weakening trend and eventually degenerate into a remnant low. The official NHC forecast calls for this transition to to occur by 48 h. However, it could occur sooner than this if organized deep convection fails to regenerate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 10.9N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 10.5N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 10.1N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 9.9N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 9.9N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 9.9N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 10.1N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 10.3N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-06-14 22:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142041 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.0W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.0W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.5N 131.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.1N 132.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.9N 134.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.9N 135.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 10.1N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 10.3N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 130.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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