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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-15 22:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152039 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin down, with dissipation expected within a few days. Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 9.8N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-06-15 22:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152038 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 133.5W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 133.5W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Bill Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-06-15 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 152032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 59.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 59.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 44.7N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N 59.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Bill Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-06-15 16:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151434 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 1500 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 62.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 33 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 62.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 63.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 43.4N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 47.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 62.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-06-15 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151433 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Several hours ago there was a burst of deep convection near the center of Carlos. Although cloud tops are beginning to warm, this convection gave Carlos a little more time as a tropical cyclone. There has been no new ASCAT data since early yesterday to confirm the strength of the cyclone's winds, and so the initial intensity is set at a somewhat uncertain 30 kt for this advisory, which is in agreement with the CIMSS ADT. Carlos has begun to turn back to the west and is now on a heading of 260/9 kt. This general motion, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed is expected for the remainder of the cyclone's existence, as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus. Dry and stable air along with strong vertical wind shear that have been disrupting the depression's convection will continue to affect the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Due to the warm underlying waters, there still may be some short-lived convective bursts near the center of Carlos over the next couple of days. In about 2 days, the shear vector will shift from southwest to northwest as an upper trough north of the depression shifts east. This subsident pattern should put an end to any chances for organized deep convection to return. The NHC forecast calls for Carlos to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 h. However, that timing is uncertain, and Carlos could remain a tropical cyclone until the upper-level flow shifts in a couple of days. Once a remnant low, the system should dissipate within a day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 10.0N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 9.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 9.9N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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