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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-22 22:35:04| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020
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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-22 22:34:08| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 41
2020-09-22 17:00:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 221459 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 Teddy is in the late stages of extratropical transition. The hurricane has taken on a large comma shape in satellite images, with a huge dry-air intrusion aloft near the center and a cold front on the western side of the cyclone. While it is tempting to call it an extratropical now, temperature data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Teddy has maintained a significant warm core, and the strongest winds on the southwestern side appear to be more related to the cyclone and not the front. Lastly, deep convection is trying to re-develop near the center, another indication that the transition is not yet done. Thus Teddy will remain a hurricane on this advisory. The initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, a blend of the 122-kt flight-level winds, 75-kt SFMR values, and global model analyses since much of this large hurricane is not being sampled. Teddy should transition into a post-tropical cyclone by the time it reaches Nova Scotia and steadily weaken as it moves over the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream. The cyclone should turn northward today and north-northeastward tomorrow ahead of the next trough in the mid-latitudes. This will take Post-Tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days, with the cyclone likely being absorbed into a larger extratropical cyclone west of Greenland in 2-3 days. There are no significant changes to report, except to show a sooner dissipation, which is consistent with the latest global models solutions. The hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds fields, plus 12-ft seas area, from Teddy have just about doubled overnight, so it is important to note that hazards will extend much farther than normal from the center of this hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter reported hurricane-force surface winds 120 n mi northwest of the center, and Canadian buoy 44150 has recently reported 34-ft significant wave heights, with the buoy still about 180 n mi from the center. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 39.6N 63.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 41.8N 64.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 44.8N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/0000Z 48.8N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1200Z 54.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Beta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-22 16:59:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221458 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Beta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio, Corpus Christi, and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has moved a little farther inland and has weakened to a tropical depression. The same data also show that Beta has started a slow drift toward the northeast. Deep convection has waned considerably since the previous advisory, especially during the past few hours, with cloud tops now warmer than -30 deg C, which no longer meets the Dvorak satellite classification criterion. The initial intensity is 30 kt is based on average Doppler velocities of 35-40 kt between 1500-2500 ft ASL just to the southeast and south of Galveston. The initial motion estimate is now 045/02 kt. Steering currents around Beta remain weak. However, water vapor imagery indicates that a broad mid- to upper-level trough over western Texas is moving slowly eastward, and that feature should gradually force Beta east-northeastward later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Wednesday and Thursday across Louisiana and Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, which keeps Beta just inland from the Gulf coast, and lies near a blend of the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX, and the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA. Since Beta's center is forecast to remain just inland for the next 36-48 hours, chances of the cyclone regaining tropical storm status are becoming less likely. As a result, the new official intensity forecast shows Beta remaining a 25-30 kt depression during that time, followed by weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours, and dissipation over Mississippi or Alabama by 96 hours. This is consistent with the various simple and corrected-consensus models. Although Beta is now an inland tropical depression, the National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on the cyclone due to its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and until it becomes clear that re-strengthening into a tropical storm is unlikely. Key Messages: 1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible on smaller rivers. 2. Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in above normal high tides, and coastal flooding over the next few days will be slow to recede. For information on the ongoing coastal flooding, please refer to coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 28.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/0000Z 29.0N 96.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 29.6N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 30.4N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 33.1N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 34.4N 88.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Beta Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-09-22 16:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 221456 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INFORMATION ON ONGOING COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE FOUND IN COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 96.7W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 96.7W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 96.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.0N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.6N 95.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.4N 93.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 33.1N 90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 34.4N 88.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 96.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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