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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 43
2020-09-22 22:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 222050 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 Although Paulette lacks the typical definition for deep convection, there remains some convection with cloud tops to -20 deg C encircling an eye-like feature noted in the lower cloud layer. Given the low tropopause level across that portion of the Atlantic basin causing the relatively low cloud tops, Paulette is being maintained as a tropical cyclone for at least this cycle. Vertical wind shear near 30 kt along with sea-surface temperatures of 23-22 deg C are expected to result in a gradual weakening and spin down of Paulette's circulation throughout the forecast period. As a result, the small cyclone should become a remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate by Friday or Saturday when the shallow system will be moving westward into westerly mid-level shear. Paulette is moving eastward or 080/10 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue through Wednesday as Paulette remains embedded within deep-layer westerly flow on the east side of mid- to upper-level trough. As Paulette weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to slow down in the 36-48 time period and turn southward. Thereafter, Paulette should be steered westward by low-level easterly flow on the south side of the Bermuda-Azores High. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle of the NHC track guidance models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 34.8N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 43
2020-09-22 22:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 222049 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 21.2W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 21.2W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 21.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 21.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Beta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-22 22:43:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222043 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Beta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has continued to weaken. What convection remains is quite shallow with a few cloud tops only extending up to 25,000- 30,000 ft ASL, mainly near and northeast of the center. However, those low-topped showers are quite prodigious rain-producers with rainfall totals of 13-14 inches having been measured across portions of the Houston metropolitan area thus far. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on near-shore buoy and surface observing stations. The initial motion estimate is now 065/04 kt. A coastal convergence zone or trough has formed about 20-25 nmi inland from the Texas Gulf coast and, owing to the lack of any significant deep-layer steering flow, Beta is forecast to move slowly along that trough axis and remain inland throughout the forecast period as a result. The ECMWF and UKMET models move Beta rapidly northeastward after 48 hours, but that scenario seems to be overdone given the expected shallow nature of the cyclone. The new NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models, except that I used the slower forward speed of the GFS model. Since Beta is forecast to remain inland for the next throughout the forecast period, the cyclone is not expected to regain tropical storm status. Beta to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours, and dissipate over Mississippi or Alabama in 96 hours, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely the simple and corrected-consensus models IVCN and HCCA. This is the last NHC advisory on Beta. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Key Messages: 1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible on smaller rivers. 2. Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in above normal high tides, and coastal flooding over the next few days will be slow to recede. For information on the ongoing coastal flooding, please refer to coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 29.0N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 29.3N 95.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 30.1N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 31.3N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 32.5N 90.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 33.8N 88.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 35.1N 87.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Beta Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-09-22 22:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 222042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 96.3W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 96.3W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 96.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.3N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.1N 94.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 31.3N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.5N 90.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.8N 88.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.1N 87.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 96.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON BETA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2, WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV . $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Information (.shp)
2020-09-22 22:37:01| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 20:37:01 GMT
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