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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-21 22:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 714 WTNT22 KNHC 212042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM BAFFIN BAY TO SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS...TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 96.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 96.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.5N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.7N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.9N 95.8W...NEAR TEXAS COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.2N 94.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.8N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 34.1N 88.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 96.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-09-21 17:25:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211525 CCA TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CORRECTED SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING BETWEEN SABINE PASS, TX AND ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE, LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS, TEXAS TO SABINE PASS, TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY, ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO BAY, MATAGORDA BAY, AND GALVESTON BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 95.7W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 95.7W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.3N 96.5W...NEAR TEXAS COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.5N 96.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.3W...NEAR TEXAS COAST MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.7N 94.0W...NEAR TEXAS COAST MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.8N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.5N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 95.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 37
2020-09-21 16:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 211454 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 Teddy has weakened some since yesterday. While the maximum 700-mb winds from the latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission were 93 kt, the peak SFMR values were only 68 kt. A blend of these data with some undersampling due to the large size of Teddy gives an initial wind speed of 80 kt. The hurricane is beginning to accelerate to the north-northeast as the long-awaited mid-latitude trough begins to pick up the cyclone. All of the guidance is in very good agreement that Teddy will benefit from this interaction, growing in both size and maximum winds due to this trough and warmer waters in the Gulf Stream. Thus, the hurricane should intensify overnight, and the new intensity forecast is close to the latest GFS model. Afterward, the baroclinic energy source is exhausted, and Teddy should move north of the Gulf Stream by Wednesday, helping to complete its post-tropical transition. The cyclone should weaken while it accelerates to the north-northeast across eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Newfoundland before dissipating in 3-4 days. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see products from your local office for more information about marine hazards. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today. Wind gusts of tropical-storm-force have been reported on the island, and tropical storm conditions could continue today. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 31.1N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 34.4N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 38.2N 63.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 40.7N 64.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 43.7N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/0000Z 47.5N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1200Z 51.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Forecast Information (.shp)
2020-09-21 16:54:14| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 14:54:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-21 16:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 211451 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 There has been little change in Beta's overall convective structure and intensity, with thunderstorm activity pulsing near the center while the outer rain bands have changed little and keep rotating onshore the central and upper Texas coastal areas. Dry air intrusions into the inner-core region have continued to prevent Beta from strengthening by eroding the central dense overcast (CDO). The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft showing peak SFMR surface winds of 40-45 kt and maximum flight-level winds of 50 kt so far, along with a dropsonde-measured central pressure of 996-997 mb. Beta now appears to be moving west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed, with the initial motion estimated to be 290/06 kt based on data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars from Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas. The forecast discussion is the same old song as it was 24 hours ago with Beta expected to move just inland over the central Texas coastal Plain in about 12-18 hours, followed by a sharp decrease in motion, possibly resulting in Beta stalling for a few hours as steering currents collapse. A trough to the west combines with a broad ridge to the east located over the Gulf of Mexico to begin nudging Beta slowly northeastward or east-northeastward in 24-36 hours, followed by a slightly faster forward speed on days 3 and 4, which will continue until the cyclone dissipates over Mississippi by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, keeping Beta just inland or near the Texas coast through 60 hours, a scenario that is close to the various consensus models, and which lies between the more westward-and-inland ECMWF solution and the more eastward-and-overwater GFS track forecast. West-southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is not only expected to keep Beta's track close to the coastline, but it will also affect the cyclone's intensity along with land interaction. The closer the cyclone stays near the Gulf of Mexico, the more likely that bands of convection containing tropical-storm-force winds will continue to roll onshore the Texas coast through 36-48 hours. Given that the models over the past 24 hours have been trending toward a track closer to the coast, the NHC official intensity remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and lies a little above all of the available guidance through 48 hours. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas coast later this morning and continue into Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 27.9N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 28.3N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST 24H 22/1200Z 28.5N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST 60H 24/0000Z 29.7N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST 72H 24/1200Z 30.8N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z 33.5N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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