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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 41
2020-09-22 16:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 221454 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA * NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA * MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC * PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 63.7W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 120NW. 50 KT.......210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. 34 KT.......360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..660NE 780SE 960SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 63.7W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.8N 64.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 34 KT...260NE 280SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.8N 62.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...210NE 260SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 48.8N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 54.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 63.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 42
2020-09-22 16:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 221449 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 The last of the deep convection near the center of Paulette dissipated early this morning, and the circulation now consists of low-topped shower activity with the cloud tops warmer than -30 degrees C. The nearest shower activity that could qualify as deep convection is nearly 100 n mi from the cyclone's center and appears to be associated with a frontal boundary. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses sampled peak winds of 33 kt, and therefore the initial advisory intensity is being lowered to 35 kt. Moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected to continue to weaken Paulette, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 36 h. If the deep convection does not return to Paulette soon, then the cyclone could be declared a remnant low by as early as this evening. Paulette is moving eastward at 12 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday as the cyclone remains embedded in the flow around a mid-latitude trough to its north. The trough is expected to lift out of the region in about 36 h, and a ridge is forecast to build in its place in a couple of days. This evolution should cause Paulette, or its remnants, to slow down and make a 180 degree right turn over the course of a couple of days. By late week, whatever is left of the cyclone should be moving west-southwestward. An alternate scenario depicted by a couple of the models is that Paulette never escapes the flow around the trough and continues to move east-northeast until it dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the previous one, but is somewhat uncertain after 36 h due to the diverging model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 35.0N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 35.2N 20.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 35.6N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 35.9N 16.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 35.6N 15.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 34.9N 15.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 33.9N 18.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 42
2020-09-22 16:49:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 221448 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 22.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 22.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 23.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 35.2N 20.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.6N 18.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.9N 16.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.6N 15.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.9N 15.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.9N 18.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 22.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Information (.shp)
2020-09-22 16:46:37| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 14:46:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-22 16:44:03| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020
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