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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-09-22 10:58:26| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 19

2020-09-22 10:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 949 WTNT42 KNHC 220857 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Beta's center has continued to move farther inland since making landfall on the southern end of the Matagorda Peninsula around 10 PM CDT last evening. There have not been any surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and an earlier ASCAT pass indicated that winds over the water had decreased to near 35 kt. That is Beta's estimated intensity at the moment, with the assumption that those winds are still occurring somewhere over water or within the deep convection near the center. Beta has been moving northwestward, or 315/3 kt. Steering currents around the storm are now collapsing, and Beta is expected to meander during the next 12-24 hours. By this time tomorrow, however, a mid-level trough over west Texas is forecast to begin moving eastward and should scoop Beta up, causing the storm to move toward the east-northeast near or just inland of the upper Texas coast through 36 hours. After that time, Beta is expected to turn northeastward, moving farther inland across Louisiana and Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days. Because Beta has moved a little farther inland than expected, much of the model trackers have shifted northward, and now only the UKMET and its ensemble mean show Beta's center re-emerging over the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward accordingly and generally lies between the HCCA aid and the TVCN multi-model consensus. Now that Beta's center may not move back out over the Gulf, the intensity guidance indicates that the cyclone will gradually weaken during the next few days. However, since a part of the circulation will remain over water and the system could still produce deep convection, the NHC forecast shows Beta maintaining tropical storm status for another 12 hours or so (a scenario which is above all of the guidance). Beta should weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours, and it is expected to become a remnant low in 2-3 days when vertical shear is expected to be well over 30 kt. Key Messages: 1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will continue into the ArkLaTex region and spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. Storm surge flooding will continue throughout the morning, around the times of high tide along portions of the Texas coast within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should continue to follow advice of local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue near portions of the Texas coast within the warning area today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 28.8N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z 29.1N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 29.8N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 30.8N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1800Z 32.1N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 33.6N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 19

2020-09-22 10:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220856 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF SABINE PASS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TEXAS TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 96.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 96.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 96.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.1N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N 94.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.8N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.1N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 96.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 40

2020-09-22 10:51:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 851 WTNT45 KNHC 220850 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 Recent satellite imagery shows that the central convection is diminishing, with a comma-like cloud pattern developing. The current intensity is held at 85 kt based on continuity from the earlier aircraft mission. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Teddy later today which should provide a good estimate of the intensity. Teddy is moving along the northern part of the Gulf Stream and should begin to move into cooler waters later today. Therefore weakening is expected over the next couple of days. However, baroclinic forcing should keep the cyclone at or near hurricane strength while it approaches Nova Scotia. The official intensity forecast is above the model consensus to qualitatively account for baroclinic effects. After 72 hours, or sooner, post-tropical Teddy should become absorbed or merge with a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Teddy has accelerated somewhat and is now moving north-northeastward near 24 kt. The hurricane is moving on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric cyclone centered off the northeastern U.S. coast. Teddy should continue its north-northwestward motion today and then turn north-northeastward as the mid-tropospheric cyclone shifts northeastward. This will take post-tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days. The official forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus, or HFIP, and similar to the previous NHC track. The wind field of Teddy should continue to expand today and tonight, and the extent of 12-ft seas is also growing. See the Key Message regarding swells due to Teddy. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late today through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between today and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 38.4N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 43.9N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0600Z 52.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0600Z 61.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 40

2020-09-22 10:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220850 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA * NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA * MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC * PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 62.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. 50 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..720NE 480SE 660SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 62.4W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 180NW. 34 KT...400NE 320SE 250SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 43.9N 62.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...320NE 290SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 210SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 52.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 190SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 190SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 61.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 200SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 62.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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