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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-09-21 16:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211451 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA... INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 95.7W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 95.7W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.3N 96.5W...NEAR TEXAS COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.5N 96.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.3W...NEAR TEXAS COAST MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.7N 94.0W...NEAR TEXAS COAST MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.8N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.5N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 95.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-21 16:42:18| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020
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depression
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-21 16:41:50| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2020
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 36
2020-09-21 10:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210842 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 Where Teddy once had a ragged eye has now become a dry slot, an indication that its eyewall is becoming less defined. Some southwesterly shear and the fact that Teddy is beginning to move over the cold wake of former Hurricane Paulette are probably contributing to the degradation of Teddy's structure. Based on this trend, the intensity estimate is lowered slightly to 85 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Teddy later this morning and will give a better assessment of the hurricane's winds. For now, little change was made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Teddy is beginning to interact with a large deep layer trough and frontal system that will play a big role in its evolution during the next couple of days. For the remainder of today, Teddy should remain fairly distinct from the front, moving east and northeast of Bermuda. As it begins to merge with that system on Tuesday, a slight deflection toward the north-northwest is likely, and it is possible Teddy could quickly become post-tropical if it merges with the front at that time. The most recent ECMWF and GFS runs suggest that Teddy will maintain a warm core a little longer than than that as it moves over the Gulf Stream. Regardless of its exact classification, once Teddy moves north of the Gulf Stream and over much cooler waters, it is forecast to weaken below hurricane strength and become extratropical. Even with a decrease in its highest winds, Teddy will likely be producing a large area of tropical-storm-force winds when it approaches Atlantic Canada in a couple of days. After moving over Atlantic Canada, Teddy is expected to accelerate northeastward and ahead of, and then merge with, another mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest. Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see products from your local office for more information about marine hazards. Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today. Wind gusts near tropical-storm-force have been reported on the island and tropical storm conditions could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 30.3N 63.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 32.6N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 36.7N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 39.7N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 42.6N 63.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/1800Z 46.2N 61.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/0600Z 50.0N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-21 10:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Beta is struggling this morning. Satellite images show that much of the deep convection associated with the storm has dissipated, and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the winds have decreased. Based on a combination of flight-level and SFMR data from the aircraft, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with an ASCAT pass from a few hours ago that showed peak winds close to 40 kt. It is also worth noting that the tropical-storm-force winds are largely confined to the northern half of the circulation, and these winds should spread across the Texas coast later this morning. Beta has been moving due westward during the past several hours, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/5 kt. In the short term, Beta is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion at a forward speed of about 5 kt, and that motion should take the tropical storm to the Texas coast by tonight. The models differ on how far inland Beta gets over Texas, but the majority of the guidance shows the cyclone stalling just inland on Tuesday in weak steering currents. The combination of an approaching shortwave trough and an amplifying ridge over Florida should cause Beta to turn northeastward along or near the Texas coast late Tuesday and Wednesday, and then farther inland over Louisiana on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains near the various consensus aids. The tropical storm is certainty feeling the effects of dry and stable air that has wrapped into the circulation. The combination of the dry air mass and 15-20 kt of southwesterly wind shear should limit strengthening through landfall tonight. Steady weakening is forecast after that time due to the storm interacting with land and stronger southwesterly shear. The models are in quite good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas coast later this morning and continue into Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 27.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 28.0N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 28.4N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1800Z 28.7N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/0600Z 28.9N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1800Z 29.4N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0600Z 30.2N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0600Z 32.8N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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