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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-22 16:43:33| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020
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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Information (.shp)
2020-09-22 11:02:16| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 09:02:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 41
2020-09-22 11:00:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220900 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 The tops of Paulette's convective clouds have been warming since the previous advisory, and first-light visible images show that a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds is about all that is left. The estimated maximum winds remain 50 kt based on last evening's ASCAT pass, but that value could be generous given the degraded convective structure. New scatterometer passes this morning should give us a better idea of how the winds have changed. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected to induce weakening over the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours. If convection does not redevelop later today, the transition to a post-tropical cyclone would likely occur before 48 hours. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by day 5. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast, or 065/15 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours. After that time, there is significant model divergence, with several models (such as the GFS) taking Paulette to the Iberian Peninsula while others (such as the ECMWF) stop it on a dime and turn it westward. The latter solution appears more realistic since a shallow convection-less low would be steered toward the west by ridging to the north. The NHC forecast is a blend of the previous interpolated official forecast and the HCCA consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 34.7N 23.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 35.1N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 35.4N 19.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 35.8N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 35.6N 16.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 24/1800Z 34.9N 16.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 34.3N 17.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 33.3N 21.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-22 10:59:56| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 41
2020-09-22 10:59:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220859 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 23.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 23.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 24.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 35.1N 21.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.4N 19.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.8N 17.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.6N 16.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 34.9N 16.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 34.3N 17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 33.3N 21.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 23.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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