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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-09-25 16:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 251450 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.6W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.6W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.1N 111.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.2N 112.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 114.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.8N 115.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 115.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.7N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 109.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-25 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Sep 2014 08:34:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Sep 2014 08:31:48 GMT
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rachel
Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-09-25 10:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250831 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 Microwave data reveal that Rachel is still a sheared cyclone with the center located to the northeast of the deep convection due to strong upper-level northeasterly winds. The cloud pattern has changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB and ADT from CIMMS support an initial intensity of 35 kt. There is an opportunity for Rachel to strengthen a little during the next 2 to 3 days as the shear decreases. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase again, and the circulation will begin to move over cooler waters, resulting in gradual weakening. Microwave and conventional satellite fixes indicate that Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 11 kt. The ridge over Mexico which is controlling the track of Rachel is forecast to weaken as a strong mid-latitude trough approaches. This steering pattern should favor a turn to the northwest and north beyond 48 hours. In fact, track models are in better agreement and now most of them favor a northward turn and a recurvature with a decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast period. By then, Rachel is expected to be a weakening depression or a remnant low. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one through 3 days. After that time, it was adjusted eastward a little bit to follow the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 16.0N 108.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 16.8N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 17.8N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.7N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 19.5N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 21.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-25 10:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 the center of RACHEL was located near 16.0, -108.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 4
2014-09-25 10:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 250831 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 ...RACHEL MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 108.6W ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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