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Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 13
2014-09-27 16:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271431 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 ...RACHEL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 116.1W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY...AND RACHEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 13
2014-09-27 16:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 271431 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 116.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 116.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.3N 116.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.2N 116.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.9N 117.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.7N 117.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-09-27 10:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270838 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 Rachel's convective structure has evolved since the last advisory. The long curved band noted earlier has become broken and is separated from a small, compact area of deep convection which has developed over the low-level center. An eye-like feature has also occasionally appeared in infrared satellite imagery. Maximum winds are held at 55 kt based on a consensus of T3.5/55 kt Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Rachel is forecast to be in a low-shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, and the atmosphere should be sufficiently moist and unstable to support some strengthening in the short term. After 48 hours, southwesterly vertical shear of 15-20 kt is forecast to develop, and Rachel will be moving into a much drier and stable environment. The intensity models are in good agreement that Rachel should be at or just below hurricane intensity in 24 hours, which is indicated in the official forecast. Thereafter, the dynamical models show a faster rate of weakening than the statistical models, and the NHC forecast closely follows the multi-model consensus ICON. Rachel has turned northwestward, or 315/7 kt, into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by two deep-layer lows over California and the Rio Grande Valley. As the low over California moves eastward, steering currents are expected to collapse, and Rachel should turn north-northwestward but slow down and become nearly stationary in 2-3 days. Once vertical shear increases on day 3, a less-vertically-deep Rachel is expected to begin drifting southwestward in the prevailing low-level flow. The GFS, GFDL, and GFDL ensemble mean have begun to pull back a bit on their previous trend of showing Rachel turning northeastward toward the Baja California peninsula, although there is still considerable spread in the track guidance by days 4 and 5. The updated NHC track forecast essentially maintains continuity with the previous forecast and is not too far from the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 19.1N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 19.8N 116.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 20.7N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 21.5N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 21.9N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 22.1N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 21.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2014-09-27 10:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270838 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-27 10:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 the center of RACHEL was located near 19.1, -115.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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