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Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-27 05:08:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Sep 2014 02:52:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Sep 2014 03:04:46 GMT
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rachel
Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-09-27 04:51:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270251 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery show a much improved structure for Rachel this evening. A pronounced curved band has developed and wrapped around the center of the cyclone, while a mid-level eye is seen in 2002Z AMSR-E, 2130Z AMSU, and 0127Z SSMIS microwave passes. Correspondingly, the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have jumped up to a 3.5. This supports a 55 kt intensity, which may be conservative as the CIMSS AMSU method suggests maximum sustained winds of about 75 kt. It appears likely that Rachel is responding to a reduction in the vertical shear, as it has now dropped below 10 kt. Rachel has about 24 to 36 hr of conducive environmental conditions remaining before the atmosphere that it moves into becomes quite dry and stable. In about three days, the vertical shear increases which should hasten the demise of this system. The NHC intensity prediction is based upon the IVCN multi-model ensemble through 48 hr and upon the HWRF and GFDL hurricane models after that time. The peak intensity indicated here is above that from the previous advisory due to the jump in the initial intensity. The aforementioned AMSU pass also provided some guidance from the CIRA size technique for the initial tropical-storm-force wind radii, which have been expanded outward some as a result. The forecast wind radii, however, are anticipated to not grow much, based upon a blend of the dynamical and climatological models. Rachel's center apparently reformed southwestward closer to the deep convection earlier today, as suggested by a late arriving WindSat microwave pass. While the uncertainty in the initial position is low, the current motion is a bit ambiguous due to the reformation. It is estimated that the cyclone's center is moving toward the west-northwest at around 10 kt, primarily due to steering imparted by a mid-level subtropical ridge to its northeast. A vigorous shortwave trough near California is anticipated to induce a break in the ridge and allow Rachel to turn toward the north-northwest at a slower rate of forward speed by Sunday. In about three days, a decaying Rachel will start meandering in the weak low-level flow west of Baja California. The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCE multi-model ensemble, which shows substantial divergence in solutions late in the forecast period, and is slightly east of the track shown in the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.4N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.1N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 20.0N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 20.9N 116.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 21.5N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 22.1N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 21.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-27 04:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL INTENSIFYING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 26 the center of RACHEL was located near 18.4, -115.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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rachel
Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 11
2014-09-27 04:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270246 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 ...RACHEL INTENSIFYING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 115.3W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY WITH A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE. SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-09-27 04:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270246 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0300 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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