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Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-26 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF RACHEL NEAR CLARION ISLAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 the center of RACHEL was located near 18.2, -114.4 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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rachel
Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 9
2014-09-26 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 261450 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 ...CENTER OF RACHEL NEAR CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 114.4W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 9
2014-09-26 16:49:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 261449 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.4W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.4W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.0N 116.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.8N 117.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 117.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 117.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.8N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-26 11:08:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Sep 2014 08:41:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Sep 2014 09:04:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-09-26 10:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260840 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 Microwave data indicate that Rachel's structure has changed little during the past few hours, and the maximum winds are therefore held at 45 kt. Deep convection remains limited to the southwest of the low-level center, although a recent expansion of the cold cloud tops in infrared satellite imagery suggests that the northeasterly shear may be relaxing just a bit. The SHIPS guidance indicates that the shear should gradually diminish, reaching a minimum in about 36 hours, so gradual strengthening is anticipated up through that time. After 36 hours, the shear is expected to increase while Rachel moves over marginally cooler water and into a drier, more stable environment. Steady weakening is expected to begin by 48 hours, with the cyclone likely becoming a remnant low by day 5. The updated NHC intensity forecast is not too dissimilar from the previous one. However, it should be noted that the 60-kt forecast peak intensity is a little higher than all of the guidance except the HWRF. Rachel's initial motion is 300/12 kt. The track models are in good agreement during the first 36-48 hours, showing Rachel slowing down and turning north-northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge. There is significant divergence in the guidance after 48 hours, however. The notable outliers are the GFS and the GFDL ensemble mean, which have a stronger cyclone being pulled northeastward toward the Baja California peninsula by a deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States. The other models show a weaker cyclone stalling and then turning southward or southwestward within the prevailing low-level flow. Due to the model divergence, very slow motion is indicated between days 3-5, and Rachel is expected to become nearly stationary before drifting southwestward during its remnant low stage. The guidance shifted a bit to the west on this cycle, and although the NHC forecast was also nudged in that direction, it still lies on the eastern edge of the envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.0N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.7N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.6N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.4N 116.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 22.7N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 23.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 22.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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