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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2014-09-26 10:40:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260840 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0900 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 68 9(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ISLA CLARION 50 11 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)

2014-09-26 10:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...RACHEL ABOUT TO PASS BETWEEN SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 the center of RACHEL was located near 18.0, -112.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 8

2014-09-26 10:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260839 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 ...RACHEL ABOUT TO PASS BETWEEN SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 112.9W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. RACHEL IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 8

2014-09-26 10:39:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260839 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0900 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.7N 115.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.6N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.4N 116.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.7N 116.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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