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Tropical Storm Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2017-09-23 04:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 230251 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Advisory Number 19
2017-09-23 04:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230251 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 49.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 49.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 32.2N 48.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.5N 47.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 32.4N 46.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.1N 45.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.3N 43.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 29.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Lee Graphics
2017-09-22 22:40:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 20:40:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:28:22 GMT
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-09-22 22:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 222037 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 The mid-level circulation from Lee separated from the low-level center two days ago and moved northward around the eastern periphery of a large upper-level trough. A large convective burst over the mid-level center yesterday then caused a new low-level center to develop while it moved on the northern side of the upper trough. ASCAT and ship data indicate that the small circulation is now well defined, and since deep convection has persisted near the center, advisories on Lee are being restarted. The initial wind speed is 30 kt, which could be conservative given the healthy structure seen on the last-light visible and recent microwave data. Cold upper-level temperatures from the upper trough should mitigate the effect of marginally warm waters for the next few days while Lee remains in a low-shear environment. The depression is expected to strengthen over the next few days until westerly shear is forecast to increase. The official forecast is similar to the model guidance, although it shows an earlier peak more coincident with the lower-shear, warmer-water environment. This wind speed forecast is difficult because Lee is a very small tropical cyclone, which notoriously have rapid changes, both up and down, in intensity. Lee is moving northward at about 6 kt. The depression should turn to the northeast and east over the next couple of days while it moves around a ridge over the tropical central Atlantic. Lee is forecast to become trapped beneath a mid-latitude ridge in a few days, which should cause the cyclone to drift at long range. It should be noted that models have a rather weak representation of Lee at the present time, which causes this to be an uncertain forecast. For now, the forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which has the most coherent cyclone to follow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 30.8N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 31.7N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 32.3N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 32.3N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 32.1N 45.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 31.4N 43.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 30.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 29.5N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-22 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE REGENERATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 22 the center of Lee was located near 30.8, -48.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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