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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Advisory Number 23
2017-09-24 05:03:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240303 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 CORRECTED GUSTS AT INITIAL TIME THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 50.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 50.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.5N 49.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.9N 48.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 48.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 34.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 50.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 23
2017-09-24 04:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240255 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 An ASCAT overpass around 0014 UTC caught the western half of Lee, and showed a maximum wind of about 40 kt. On that basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt, on the assumption that the ASCAT instrument is undersampling the tiny circulation of the tropical storm. A WindSat overpass from 2102 UTC indicated that Lee has developed a coherent inner-core. In fact, the 37 GHz RGB composite from the WindSat overpass indicated that a ring of shallow to moderate convection surrounds the center of Lee, often a signature of a rapidly intensifying cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast has therefore been significantly increased for the first 48 hours of the forecast, but falls short of explicitly forecasting rapid intensification. Beyond that time, most of the intensity guidance is higher than before, and shows Lee maintaining hurricane throughout the forecast period. The NHC forecast is just a little above the previous forecast at days 3-5, and close to the intensity consensus. It is still worth noting that small tropical cyclones can go up or down quickly in intensity with little warning, and confidence in the forecast is low, even with reasonable agreement among the intensity models. After turning almost due west earlier this evening, Lee appears to have come to a near halt and is beginning to turn slowly toward the southeast. Lee continues to follow the trend of the ECMWF, so the NHC forecast has been moved farther west, closer to that model. Although the GFS continues to insist on a east to northeast track, I am treating it as an outlier at this time. The remaining global models (and the HWRF) show that Lee will gradually rotate clockwise around a building mid-level ridge to the northwest for the next few days before turning more toward the north at day 4. The NHC forecast lies between HCCA and the ECMWF, but confidence in the track forecast is still low given the high model spread at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 31.9N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 31.8N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 31.5N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 30.9N 48.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 30.2N 48.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 30.0N 50.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 31.5N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 34.5N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2017-09-24 04:55:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 240255 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-24 04:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 23 the center of Lee was located near 31.9, -50.1 with movement SSE at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 23
2017-09-24 04:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240254 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017 ...LEE STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 50.1W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 50.1 West. Lee is drifting toward the south-southeast near 1 mph (2 km/h). A gradual turn toward the southwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Lee could become a hurricane on Sunday. Lee is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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