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Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-25 04:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:39:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:23:19 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-09-25 04:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250232 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 Lee has been relatively steady state in intensity during the last several hours. The 10 n mi eye of the hurricane remains distinct, and although the convective pattern around the eye is fairly symmetric, the cloud tops are not very cold. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates are 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are slightly higher at 4.7/82 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is held at 80 kt. Recent ASCAT data confirms that Lee is a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force winds extending only 30 n mi from the center. Although wind shear is expected to remain low near Lee during the next couple of days, the hurricane is likely to be over its own cool SST wake for part of that time. These marginal SSTs and dry air will likely cause the system to change little in strength during the next couple of days. Thereafter, much drier air, a sharp increase in shear, and a track toward colder water should cause weakening by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and in best agreement with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. Lee has been drifting east-southeastward during the past 12 hours in the flow on the south side of a mid- to upper-level trough. The trough is expected to bypass Lee on Monday, allowing high pressure to build to the north of the cyclone. This change in the steering pattern should cause the hurricane to turn westward by Monday night and Tuesday. By mid-week, another trough is expected to approach the hurricane, and this one should cause the system to accelerate to the northeast over the central Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the west of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 31.1N 49.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 31.0N 49.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 30.7N 49.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 30.6N 51.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 30.8N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 31.8N 54.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 34.7N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 40.0N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2017-09-25 04:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 250232 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-25 04:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.1, -49.5 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 28
2017-09-25 04:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 ...LEE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 49.5W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 49.5 West. Lee is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected overnight. A turn to the southwest and then west is expected Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Lee is a tiny hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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