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Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-24 11:02:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 09:02:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 09:21:57 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 25
2017-09-24 10:55:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240855 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 Since the earlier special advisory issued to make Lee a hurricane, the eye has become much better defined in IR imagery, indicating that the hurricane has continued to rapidly intensify. The initial intensity has therefore been increased to 75 kt, based on an application of the Dvorak technique to the latest IR imagery. It should be noted that in this case, the intensity is fairly uncertain given the lack of ground truth and the small size of the cyclone. At this point, it is hard to judge how long this period of rapid intensification will continue. On one hand, Lee is expected to remain in a relatively unstable and low-shear environment for the next several days. On the other, despite the clearing of the eye, cloud tops have not cooled significantly overnight, and the slow motion of Lee allows the possibility that the storm could begin to interact with its own cold wake. The NHC forecast brings Lee to near major hurricane strength in 24 h, and then keeps Lee around that intensity through day 4, similar to the FSSE model. By the end of the forecast, higher shear, due in part to the outflow of Hurricane Maria, could cause Lee to weaken, so the NHC forecast is a little lower at that point. Lee is drifting southward for now, but a southeastward motion is still forecast to begin later today. Very little change has been made to the NHC forecast, which is mainly just an update of the previous one. The models have come into better agreement that Lee will be primarily steered for the next several days by a mid-level ridge building to the northwest. By day 5, a trough associated with Maria and the subtropical ridge should cause Lee to begin recurving. Since the model spread has decreased, confidence in that aspect of the forecast has increased this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 31.8N 50.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 31.6N 49.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 31.1N 48.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 30.6N 48.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 30.2N 49.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 30.5N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 32.0N 52.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 34.5N 51.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-24 10:54:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.8, -50.1 with movement S at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 25
2017-09-24 10:54:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 ...LEE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 50.1W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1370 MI...2210 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 50.1 West. Lee is currently drifting southward, and a slow southeastward motion is expected to begin later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours and Lee could be near major hurricane strength on Monday. Lee is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 24
2017-09-24 08:33:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240625 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Special Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 Infrared satellite imagery indicates that an eye is developing in Lee's central dense overcast. This special advisory is thus being issued to make Lee a hurricane with 65 kt winds. The intensity forecast has been significantly increased based on the current intensity and trends, and the initial wind radii have been somewhat modified. However, the track forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0630Z 31.9N 50.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 31.8N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 31.5N 49.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 30.9N 48.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 30.2N 48.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 30.0N 50.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 31.5N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 34.5N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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