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Tropical Storm Jimena Graphics
2021-08-06 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 02:33:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 02:33:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-06 04:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060231 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Jimena is approaching the Central Pacific basin. The compact tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several hours, and it continues to have curved bands that wrap across the western half of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the University of Wisconsin range from 35 to 45 kt. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, but Jimena could be a little stronger. Unfortunately, all of the ASCAT passes missed the system earlier today, but new data from the instrument may be available tonight. The storm continues to move northwestward at about 6 kt. A gradual turn to the left, or toward the west, is expected during the next few days as the storm loses deep convection and is steered primarily by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance. Jimena has now crossed the 26 C isotherm and is expected to move over progressively cooler waters during the next couple of days. These cool waters combined with a drier airmass and an increase in shear should cause steady weakening. Jimena is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.9N 137.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.2N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 19.0N 143.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z 19.4N 144.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jimena (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-06 04:31:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA NEARING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Aug 5 the center of Jimena was located near 16.9, -137.8 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jimena Public Advisory Number 13
2021-08-06 04:31:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 ...JIMENA NEARING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 137.8W ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 137.8 West. Jimena is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours. However, steady weakening is forecast after that and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-08-06 04:31:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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