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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 052031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 137.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 137.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 137.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 137.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 052031 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Jimena Graphics
2021-08-05 16:39:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 14:39:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 14:39:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-05 16:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Jimena's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours, although most recently, enhanced infrared images show some warming of the cloud tops just west of the center. Timely AMSR-2 and GMI passive microwave color composite images revealed a well-developed banding feature wrapping around the surface center from the north and west portions of the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt and is in agreement with the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical SHIPS intensity guidance (GFS/ECMWF) show that the previously noted period of conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions should be ending soon. By the 36-hour period, sub-25C sea-surface temperatures and a gradually stabilizing/drier surrounding air mass should cause Jimena to weaken. Guidance also shows increasing west-northwesterly shear beyond 48 hours. Accordingly, the NHC forecast calls for Jimena to weaken to a depression by mid-period, and degenerate into a remnant low in 60 hours. Based on the aforementioned microwave images, the initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/6 kt. A subtropical ridge anchored to the northeast of the cyclone is forecast to steer Jimena toward the northwest through the 48 period. Afterward, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected as the vertically shallow system is influenced more by the easterly tradewinds. The official forecast is basically an update of the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus (TVCN) aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 16.1N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.5N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.5N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 19.5N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 20.3N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 20.9N 144.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jimena (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-05 16:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING... ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Aug 5 the center of Jimena was located near 16.1, -137.2 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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