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Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 2
2020-11-04 03:37:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 040237 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 ...ODALYS COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 117.2W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 117.2 West. Odalys is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. A turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast by late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is possible overnight, but Odalys should begin weakening by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-11-04 03:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 040237 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.2W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.2W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.3N 120.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 125.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-11-03 21:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032041 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 200 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 The low pressure area well south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has become significantly better organized today. A curved band of deep convection is noted to the northwest of the low-level center, and a second weaker band is located to its southeast. Satellite-derived wind data indicate the low-level center is still somewhat broad, but it appears to have enough definition to justify starting advisories as a tropical cyclone. Recent ASCAT-B data show numerous 30+ kt wind barbs, with a couple barbs peaking at 33-34 kt in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Considering known under-sampling issues with this data source, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. Thus, the system has become a tropical storm, and advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Odalys. Weak to moderate vertical wind shear and sufficient oceanic heat content may support modest strengthening during the next 12 h or so. By 24-36 h, strong southwesterly deep-layer shear associated with an approaching shortwave trough to the northwest, along with intrusions of drier mid-level air, will induce a steady and perhaps rapid weakening trend. The system is forecast to weaken to a depression by 48 h and a remnant low by 96 h, but this could occur even sooner if the stronger shear values noted in the SHIPS guidance are realized. The GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests the system could be devoid of deep convection as early as day 3 of the forecast period. The storms estimated motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. A slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as Odalys is steered northwestward by a low- to mid-level ridge centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should gradually slow down and turn westward as this ridge weakens due to the aforementioned shortwave trough. By 72 h, the storm will be steered southwestward by another low- to mid-level ridge building to its northwest. The track models are in decent agreement, and the official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope closest to the track consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 14.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 16.8N 120.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 17.9N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 18.5N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-11-03 21:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 032040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 120W 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics
2020-11-03 21:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Nov 2020 20:39:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Nov 2020 20:39:54 GMT
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