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Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)

2019-11-16 15:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...RAYMOND FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 AM MST Sat Nov 16 the center of Raymond was located near 16.5, -111.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 7

2019-11-16 15:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 161432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 ...RAYMOND FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 111.7W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Raymond. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 111.7 West. Raymond is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue trough Sunday. On the forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening is forecast and Raymond is expected to become a tropical depression when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday and should degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2019-11-16 15:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 161432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 2 18(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA SOCORRO 34 16 31(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 7

2019-11-16 15:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 161431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 111.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 111.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.2N 110.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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