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Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)
2019-11-16 21:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAYMOND ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM MST Sat Nov 16 the center of Raymond was located near 16.5, -111.8 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 8
2019-11-16 21:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 162035 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 ...RAYMOND ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 111.8W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Raymond. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 111.8 West. Raymond has been moving little or drifting northward during the past few hours. However, the cyclone should begin a northward track with an increase in forward speed later tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Raymond is expected to become a tropical depression when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday, and it should degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-11-16 21:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 162035 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 4 27(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 34 53 17(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA SOCORRO 50 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics
2019-11-16 15:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 14:33:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 14:33:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-11-16 15:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 779 WTPZ45 KNHC 161432 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 Raymond is a sheared cyclone with the low-level center located on the western edge of the convection as indicated by microwave data. Although the cloud pattern has become less organized since yesterday, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. It appears that Raymond has already peaked in intensity, and given that the shear over the cyclone will increase significantly, the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Raymond is forecast to be a tropical depression or even a remnant near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion of the Baja California in about 36 hours. In about 2 or 3 days, Raymond or its remnants are expected to be absorbed by a developing mid-to upper level trough just west of the peninsula. Raymond appears to be moving toward the north or 355 degrees at 8 kt. Soon, the cyclone will be embedded within the southerly flow ahead of the developing trough or low mentioned above. This flow pattern should steer Raymond on a general northward track until it becomes a shallow cyclone. After that time, it should move move toward the north-northwest with the low-level flow. The later portion of the track forecast is highly uncertain given that the cyclone will be very weak or probably dissipating. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.5N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.8N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 20.0N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 22.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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