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Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 4
2019-11-15 21:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 152035 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 109.4W ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Raymond. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 109.4 West. Raymond is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slightly faster forward speed is anticipated on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is expected to be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible tonight, followed by weakening by early Sunday. Raymond is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello
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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-11-15 21:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 152035 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 109.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 109.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.1N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/MELLO
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Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics
2019-11-15 15:46:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 14:46:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 15:24:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-11-15 15:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151445 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 The cyclone located several hundred miles south of the Baja California peninsula has continued to get better organized over the past few hours. The system is still sheared from the west, however, recent microwave and first-light visible imagery indicate that the center of the cyclone is better embedded within its convective canopy. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data early this morning had unflagged 35 kt peak winds and the overall structure of the cyclone appears to have improved since then. The initial intensity is therefore increased to 40 kt, and the system is now Tropical Storm Raymond. The largest source of uncertainty in Raymond's forecast is how its structure will evolve during the next 12 hours. ASCAT-C data showed that Raymond's circulation was still rather elongated overnight, however more recent microwave data indicate that the center may be reforming closer to the deep convection. If a new center is in fact consolidating to the east, Raymond should have an opportunity to strengthen today, but if the cyclone remains elongated, little intensification is likely. All of the typically-reliable dynamical intensity guidance shows at least slight strengthening, and the NHC forecast has been increased accordingly. Stronger upper-level winds are likely after that, so weakening is still expected before Raymond nears the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday, and it is forecast to become a remnant low around that time. Raymond is moving north-northwestward and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is likely on Saturday as Raymond moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. There has been little change in the track guidance since the last forecast and the new NHC forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory. It is worth noting that if Raymond's center reforms to the east, as shown by the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models, an adjustment in that direction will likely be required to the track forecast, while a broader system will more likely move farther west. Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-11-15 15:43:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 151443 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 42 16(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 15N 110W 50 4 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 31(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 6( 7) 28(35) 13(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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