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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-11-16 09:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160845 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 Infrared satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data show that the center of Raymond has become exposed to the west of the main convective mass. The ASCAT-B instrument revealed 35-40 kt winds to the northeast of the center, but it likely missed the area of strongest winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak CI number. The window of opportunity for Raymond to strengthen appears to be closing as west-southwesterly shear is already increasing over the cyclone. The shear is forecast to increase to more than 25 kt later today, and Raymond should begin to weaken by tonight. The SHIPS model indicates that the shear will become very belligerent in 36 to 48 hours when the cyclone approaches a cut off low to the west of the Baja peninsula. Raymond is forecast to weaken to a depression within a couple of days when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and should degenerate into a remnant low shortly thereafter. The cyclone is likely to dissipate within 3 days, however a 72-h forecast position is provided for continuity. Raymond jogged west-northwestward earlier this evening, but it is expected to resume a north-northwestward heading very soon. A turn to the north should occur later today, and a north to north- northeastward motion is predicted tonight and Sunday as the cyclone is steered between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to the southeast. Once Raymond weakens, it is expected to turn northwestward within the low-level steering flow. The more westward initial position of Raymond has required a westward adjustment of the track but the new official forecast is again close to the center of the guidance envelope. Regardless of the cyclone's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the system will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.7N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 21.2N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 26.8N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-11-16 09:44:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 160843 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 1 16(17) 23(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 9 31(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)
2019-11-16 09:43:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAYMOND MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... As of 2:00 AM MST Sat Nov 16 the center of Raymond was located near 15.7, -110.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 6
2019-11-16 09:43:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160843 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 ...RAYMOND MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 110.6W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Raymond. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 110.6 West. Raymond jogged west-northwestward overnight, but it is expected to resume a motion toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the north is expected later today, and a northward to north- northeastward motion should then continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is expected to be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin Saturday night and continue through Monday. Raymond is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday and should degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-11-16 09:43:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160843 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.6W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.6W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.2N 110.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 26.8N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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