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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-11-16 03:34:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160234 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.8W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.8W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.6N 110.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.3N 110.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.3N 109.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.4N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.0N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics
2019-11-15 21:37:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 20:37:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 20:37:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-11-15 21:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 Raymond continues to move toward the north-northwest several hundred miles south of the Baja California peninsula. ASCAT-B data at 1624 UTC showed that Raymond's circulation has become a little better defined with maximum winds of 35-40 kt. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on that data, assuming that the ASCAT slightly under-sampled the strongest winds. The tropical storm is in a moderate shear environment which will likely limit its development potential. Most of the intensity guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is possible today, but a general weakening trend should begin by late Saturday. Raymond is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 h, but several of the dynamical models now suggest that the cyclone will still have tropical characteristics when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. That said, there is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding Raymond's structure when, or if, it reaches the coast of the peninsula. Regardless of the cyclone's status, rainfall associated with Raymond will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. Raymond should continue moving generally north-northwestward through tonight. A turn to the north is forecast on Saturday as Raymond moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance has converged on top of the previous NHC forecast track and virtually no change was made to the official forecast, which lies between the corrected consensus aids HCCA and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 14.7N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.6N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 21.0N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 25.1N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello
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Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-11-15 21:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 152035 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 22(27) X(27) X(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 47 7(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 15N 110W 50 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 20(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 14(15) 24(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/MELLO
Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)
2019-11-15 21:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Nov 15 the center of Raymond was located near 14.7, -109.4 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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