je.st
news
Tag: raymond
Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 9
2019-11-17 03:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 170234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 ...RAYMOND SLOWLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 112.1W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Raymond. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 112.1 West. Raymond is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north and a faster forward speed are expected later tonight or early Sunday, and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Raymond is expected to become a tropical depression when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday, and it should degenerate into a remnant low Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-11-17 03:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 170234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 5 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 34 60 4(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-11-17 03:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 170233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.1W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.1W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.7N 111.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.7N 111.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.1N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-11-16 21:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 494 WTPZ45 KNHC 162036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 The could pattern has deteriorated this afternoon, and the circulation is still there, but becoming elongated. In fact, the convection no longer shows a cyclonic curvature and it has the appearance of a linear cloud band. Dvorak estimates also reflect some weakening, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been set at 40 kt. The shear is forecast to markedly increase soon as a mid-level trough or low develops just west of the Baja california peninsula. This belligerent shear pattern calls for weakening, and Raymond is forecast to become a tropical depression or even degenerate into a remnant near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in about 36 hours. The system then should become absorbed by the developing mid-to upper level trough. The weakening is depicted by global models which clearly show the vertical fracture of the cyclone with the mid-level center moving northeastward over mainland Mexico and the weakening low-level center moving north-northwestward just west of the Peninsula. Raymond has been moving little or drifting northward during the past several hours. However, most of the track guidance indicate that Raymond should move northward with an increase in forward speed embedded within the southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula. The later portion of the track forecast is highly uncertain given that the cyclone will be very weak or probably dissipating. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.5N 111.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.2N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-11-16 21:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 162035 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 111.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] next »