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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2017-09-17 04:56:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 170256 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 29(39) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 25(45) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 51(63) 12(75) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 12(48) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 17(73) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 15(46) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 51(66) 11(77) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 11(50) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 8(32) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 46(73) 7(80) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 40(46) 6(52) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 6(33) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 42(74) 6(80) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) 5(49) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 5(31) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 36(79) 4(83) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 36(52) 3(55) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 3(35) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 48(56) 15(71) 1(72) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 14(38) 1(39) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) 1(22) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 58(73) 8(81) 1(82) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 9(51) X(51) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 8(32) X(32) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 46(66) 5(71) X(71) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 3(34) X(34) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 45(77) 4(81) X(81) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) 2(48) 1(49) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 2(27) X(27) GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 50(58) 31(89) 1(90) X(90) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 42(63) 2(65) X(65) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) 2(44) X(44) AVES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 55(65) 8(73) 1(74) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 10(47) X(47) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 6(28) 1(29) DOMINICA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 55(68) 20(88) 1(89) X(89) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 27(64) 1(65) X(65) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 23(42) 1(43) X(43) MARTINIQUE 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 44(64) 10(74) X(74) X(74) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 11(47) X(47) X(47) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) 1(29) X(29) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 24(36) 9(45) 1(46) X(46) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 7(22) 1(23) X(23) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBADOS 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 7(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-17 04:56:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 16 the center of Maria was located near 12.5, -53.7 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 3

2017-09-17 04:56:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170255 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 53.7W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Maarten. The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for Anguilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Guadeloupe * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * Martinique * Dominica * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be issued early Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 53.7 West. Maria is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected during next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will be near the Leeward Islands Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Maria is forecast to be a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory Number 3

2017-09-17 04:56:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170255 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANGUILLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * GUADELOUPE * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE BRITISH AND U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 53.7W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 53.7W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 53.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.1N 55.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.9N 57.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.6N 59.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N 60.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.0N 66.5W...NEAR COAST OF PUERTO RICO MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 19.5N 69.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics

2017-09-17 01:38:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 23:38:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 21:36:26 GMT

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