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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-18 07:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STRENGTHENING MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Maria was located near 14.4, -59.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 7A
2017-09-18 07:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180531 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...STRENGTHENING MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 59.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Martinique A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Lucia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Hurricane and Tropical storm Warnings may be issued for portion of the Leeward and Virgin Islands on today, and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for Puerto Rico and the nearby islands this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located by Martinique radar near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 59.0 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late today and tonight and then over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to become a major hurricane before it moves through the Leeward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of the Leeward Islands by late today, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the day today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area through tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the remaining northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla, as well as the Windward Islands and Barbados. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-18 04:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 02:56:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 02:56:14 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-09-18 04:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180249 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft received just after the previous advisory indicated that Maria's maximum sustained winds had increased to 70 kt. Since that time, a large central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C has formed, and data from the radar on Martinique shows 60-70 percent of an eyewall is present under the overcast. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 75 kt, and that is the initial intensity. The initial motion is 290/11. The subtropical ridge to the north is expected to steer Maria generally west-northwestward for the next 72 h, with some decrease in the forward speed. After that time, the guidance suggests that the hurricane should turn more toward the northwest as it approaches the western end of the ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track, is in best overall agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus and ECMWF models. Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that Maria is currently experiencing light to moderate southwesterly shear. However, all indications are that the shear should diminish during the next 24-48 h, which should allow steady to rapid strengthening. The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model forecast better than a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of strengthening during the next 24 h, and about a 35 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h. Based on this, the intensity forecast has been increased to show Maria becoming a major hurricane in 24 h and a category 4 hurricane in 48 h. Late in the forecast period, a combination of land interaction and increasing shear should cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast is near the upper edge of the guidance in best overall agreement with the HWRF. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria continues to strengthen and is expected to be at major hurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islands over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings will likely be extended northward and westward on Monday. 2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane. Hurricane watches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and could be extended to Puerto Rico early Monday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 14.2N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.7N 59.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.4N 61.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 16.9N 63.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 18.5N 67.0W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 96H 22/0000Z 20.0N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 23/0000Z 22.0N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-09-18 04:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 180248 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 33(48) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 27(66) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 23(41) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 6(23) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 41(50) 14(64) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 11(33) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 32(54) 6(60) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 5(31) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 66(81) 6(87) X(87) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 8(61) 1(62) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 6(41) 1(42) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 69(77) 9(86) 1(87) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 15(61) 1(62) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 13(42) 1(43) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 65(86) 5(91) X(91) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) 5(67) X(67) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 5(45) 1(46) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 37(43) 48(91) 2(93) X(93) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 56(67) 4(71) X(71) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 45(49) 2(51) X(51) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 43(51) 38(89) 1(90) X(90) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 50(64) 2(66) X(66) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 2(44) X(44) SAINT CROIX 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 52(67) 28(95) X(95) X(95) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 44(74) 2(76) X(76) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 41(55) 1(56) X(56) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 4( 5) 37(42) 32(74) 9(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 9(38) X(38) X(38) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 8(10) 67(77) 14(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 1( 1) 31(32) 23(55) 5(60) X(60) X(60) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 11(11) 20(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) BARBUDA 34 2 13(15) 49(64) 8(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) BARBUDA 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANTIGUA 34 2 36(38) 45(83) 4(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) ANTIGUA 50 X 3( 3) 31(34) 6(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) ANTIGUA 64 X 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GUADELOUPE 34 3 80(83) 14(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GUADELOUPE 50 1 28(29) 42(71) 1(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) GUADELOUPE 64 X 8( 8) 33(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) AVES 34 2 7( 9) 54(63) 16(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) AVES 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 20(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) AVES 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) DOMINICA 34 9 87(96) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 50 1 76(77) 10(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) DOMINICA 64 X 51(51) 19(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) MARTINIQUE 34 32 57(89) 1(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) MARTINIQUE 50 2 49(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) MARTINIQUE 64 X 24(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT LUCIA 34 5 26(31) 3(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT LUCIA 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BARBADOS 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GRENADA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT OF SPAIN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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