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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 6

2017-09-17 22:53:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 172053 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...MARIA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 57.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda. The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for these islands. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Hurricane Watch for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Lucia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be issued tonight or on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 57.5 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands Monday night and then over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria could be near major hurricane intensity when it moves across the Leeward Islands Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for the northern and central Windward Islands. In all the above areas, these rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 6

2017-09-17 22:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 172052 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THESE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. LUCIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 57.5W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 57.5W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 59.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.1N 60.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.8N 65.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 19.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 57.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics

2017-09-17 19:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 17:55:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 15:34:54 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-17 19:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING MARIA... As of 2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 17 the center of Maria was located near 13.6, -56.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 5A

2017-09-17 19:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 171753 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING MARIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 56.9W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for Guadeloupe and a Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, including the British and U. S. Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 56.9 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for the northern and central Windward Islands. In all the above areas, these rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are beginning to affect the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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