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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory Number 5

2017-09-17 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 171452 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT * GUADELOUPE * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE BRITISH AND U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 56.2W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 56.2W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 55.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.1N 57.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.8N 59.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 60.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.1N 62.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 64.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 69.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 56.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics

2017-09-17 13:38:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 11:38:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 09:36:09 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-17 13:37:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM AST Sun Sep 17 the center of Maria was located near 13.3, -55.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 4A

2017-09-17 13:37:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 171136 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 55.6W ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Guadeloupe * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * Martinique * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be issued today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 55.6 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a further reduction in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will be near the Leeward Islands Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria will likely become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern Leeward Islands and north-central Windward Islands. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-17 11:07:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA STRENGTHENING... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 17 the center of Maria was located near 13.0, -54.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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