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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics
2017-09-17 16:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 14:57:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 15:34:54 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-17 16:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 17 the center of Maria was located near 13.5, -56.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 5
2017-09-17 16:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 171452 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 56.2W ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for Dominica. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Guadeloupe * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, including the British and U. S. Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be issued today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 56.2 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for the northern and central Windward Islands. In all the above areas, these rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are beginning to affect the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-09-17 16:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 171452 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 28(38) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 27(47) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 18(52) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 40(77) 5(82) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 36(47) 6(53) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 3(32) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 50(73) 8(81) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 9(51) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 6(32) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 35(80) 4(84) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 36(52) 4(56) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 4(36) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 53(59) 23(82) 3(85) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 27(56) 2(58) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 23(37) 2(39) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 54(63) 19(82) 2(84) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 20(53) 2(55) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) 2(36) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 63(75) 11(86) 1(87) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 17(61) 1(62) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 15(42) 1(43) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 25(31) 44(75) 5(80) X(80) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 3(46) 1(47) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) X(26) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 48(60) 29(89) 1(90) X(90) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 41(62) 2(64) X(64) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 2(42) X(42) BARBUDA 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 40(60) 19(79) 1(80) X(80) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 19(39) 1(40) X(40) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) X(20) ANTIGUA 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 43(77) 12(89) X(89) X(89) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 19(58) X(58) X(58) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 15(34) 1(35) X(35) GUADELOUPE 34 1 5( 6) 58(64) 28(92) 4(96) X(96) X(96) GUADELOUPE 50 X 1( 1) 23(24) 45(69) 9(78) X(78) X(78) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) 9(53) X(53) X(53) AVES 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 31(39) 29(68) 2(70) 1(71) AVES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 31(43) 1(44) X(44) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 1(25) X(25) DOMINICA 34 1 8( 9) 62(71) 16(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) DOMINICA 50 X 1( 1) 39(40) 25(65) 3(68) X(68) X(68) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) 19(19) 21(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) MARTINIQUE 34 2 15(17) 46(63) 6(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) MARTINIQUE 50 X 2( 2) 28(30) 9(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 5( 6) 18(24) 6(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 2 8(10) 4(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) BARBADOS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT OF SPAIN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-09-17 16:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 171452 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory. There appears to be a dry slot working into the western side of Maria, and the low-level circulation seems to be peaking out from under the western side of a persistent CDO feature. Dvorak estimates are unchanged from six hours ago, so the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Maria this afternoon. Maria continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt, and that trajectory is expected to continue at least for the next four days while a mid-level high is centered over the western Atlantic Ocean. However, the track guidance has generally slowed down since the high is not very expansive or strong, and the new NHC track forecast follows that trend, ending up a little slower than the previous forecast. The official forecast also continues to hedge toward the southern side of the track guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF and HCCA models, which have been doing very well this hurricane season. Until the reconnaissance aircraft investigates Maria, the initial intensity will be a little uncertain. Regardless, the storm is within an environment of very low shear and over sea surface temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius, so steady strengthening is expected during the next few days. Due to this seemingly ideal environment, the NHC intensity forecast is higher than the statistical-dynamical guidance and closely follows HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus through the entire forecast period. Maria is likely to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane in 2 to 3 days. No major changes to the intensity forecast were necessary compared with the previous cycle, and I'd rather wait anyway until we have a better handle on Maria's intensity and structure. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the Leeward Islands as a hurricane early this week, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings will likely be extended northward and westward later today and tonight. 2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.5N 56.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 14.1N 57.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 14.8N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 60.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.1N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 17.3N 64.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 18.5N 67.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 20.0N 69.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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